Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French Covid Thread
The Omicron pandemic is raging but rising less rapidly; Delta is declining slowly (see Covidtracker graphic). Overall, there are reasons to hope that a plateau will be reached next week. In France as elsewhere, Omicron is causing less acute illness 1/10

Omicron is now 90% of new cases in France, up from 80% last week. Together the variants are producing an average of 293,867 cases a day – a 47% increase on last week, after 64% the week before. But (good news alert) acute care and deaths are “only” 5% and 3% up.
2/10

There is some push-back against Fr govt's handling of the pandemic. Teachers went on strike against school mask/testing rules and won concessions. The Senate has delayed the move from “health pass” to vaccine pass. Outdoor masks in Paris have been struck down by a tribunal. 3/10

Overall, though, the government appears to be winning its gamble not to impose a new-lockdown/curfews to flatten the curve of Omicron. The virus is raging – even the health minister, Olivier Véran, has it – but hospital admissions have been falling in recent days. See graph 4/10

Early French figures, confirming those in SA/UK, suggest Omicron DOES cause some serious illness but that its gravity, overall, is much less than Delta or Beta. The graph below – Omicron in black – shows the ratio between new cases/acute cases, going back to Sept 2020. 5/10

As things stand Omicron is 90% of C19 cases but represents only half of C19 hosp admissions (often brief stays). In other words, the “10% Delta” cases cause as many hosp cases as the “90% Omicron” cases. Omicron (90%) causes 21% of acute cases; Delta (10%) most of the rest. 6/10

Even allowing for time-lag (Omicron IS relatively new), these are encouraging figures. Similar stats elsewhere led global experts to speak once again of the possibility that Omicron could start an “endemic” (tolerable) rather than pandemic (critical) phase of the Covid saga.
7/10

It is certainly beginning to looks as though Omicron will not bring a huge increase in acute illness/deaths in France and overwhelm a hospital system already choked by Delta cases.
As of yesterday, there were 3,939 cases in acute care (5% up in a week after 6% last week). 8/10

The incidence rate (TDI or cases per 100,000 people/ 7 days) has increased in the last week from 1,753 to 2,833. The number of new cases daily averaged 293, 867 – 47% up. Hosp admissions were 14% up and deaths (208 a day) 3% up.
9/10

Almost 80% of the French population is now first-vaxxed - 53,465,792 people, including 93% of adults and 129,000 5-11 yr olds since 22 Dec.
The number of booster or 3rd jabs has topped 30m,

Hang in there.

10/10