Latest view on England covid hospital admissions (as of 17-Jan) with 1,604 reported for 15-Jan.
The 7 day average is now 1921, equivalent to around 29-Dec (i.e. 14 days ago), a reduction of 81 (4.1%) in the last week.
Latest view on England patients with a positive covid test currently in hospital, as of 8am on 17-Jan.
The count is now 16,621, a reduction of 499 (2.9%) in the last week.
Latest view on England mechanical ventilator beds (with a positive covid test), as of 8am on 17-Jan.
The count is now 623, a reduction of 84 (12%) in the last week.
Also including London in main thread due to current focus on that region.
The count is now 219, a reduction of 6 (2.7%) in the last week.
Charts by England NHS Region of Admissions, Patients and Mechanical Ventilator Beds per 100K of population (to allow relative comparison).
Plus a set extended out to 400 days to give a bit more historical context.
Age ranges of England hospital admissions. Note this age-range data lags a day or so behind the above totals data.
Percentage view of age ranges of England hospital admissions.
Some additional content (mainly variations of the above charts) is available here: …ddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Hospital/Hospi…
Chart to compare the Admissions projections from the 8-Sep SPI-M-O consensus statement with actuals.
This are the projections being used as basis for calls for additional restrictions.
The document says the likely trajectory is between green and blue lines.
Selection of models from the 13-Oct SPI-M-O document for Autumn/Winter scenarios with the latest actuals.
Unusually, they have under-estimated but still goes to show how (as stated by the modellers themselves) they are not a reliable indicator of what will actually happen.
The most optimistic models for Admissions / Deaths from the 11-Dec LSHTM report on potential consequences of Omicron, with latest actuals applied.
Note that the report is marked as "PRELIMINARY � NOT PEER REVIEWED" and "work in progress".
Imperial "Hypothetical Country" Omicron Deaths Model from 16-Dec Report with latest England actuals applied in red. A bit rough due to low resolution input image but good enough to illustrate how the model doesn't match England reality.
Warwick 30-Dec projections for Omicron. Main charts from document for Omicron at 50% severe as Delta and dark red for no further restrictions.
The model projects 12-Jan as roughly 1385 deaths a day while the latest rolling average of actuals to that date is 203 (85% lower).
Also included in the 30-Dec Warwick doc (considerably less prominently) is a model for Omicron at 10% severe as Delta with 20% restrictions.
The model projects 12-Jan as roughly 327 deaths a day while the latest rolling average of actuals to that date is 203 (38% lower).
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