Thread by @MJ_Cruickshank

THREAD:

🌾 War in Ukraine & global food price instability 🌾

As I have mentioned a few times in the past, global food prices are at near-historic highs, already threatening global political stability. A war in Ukraine could make this situation *much* worse. (1/8)

Firstly, despite a small dip in Dec 2021, the UN @FAO 's Food Price Index is still at alarmingly high levels.

The primary causes are stated as the: "high cost of inputs, the ongoing global pandemic and ever more uncertain climatic conditions" (2/8)

reliefweb.int/report/world/g…

High global food prices have been historically linked to waves of unrest (see graph), through the interplay of food riots and pre-existing social tensions.

In 2021 food-related unrest was experienced in S. Africa, Colombia, Nigeria, Sudan, Brazil & many other countries. (3/8)

The FAO does not expect the situation to improve in 2021, however, with a Russian invasion of Ukraine now likely, this situation could get significantly worse.

This is due to the outsized impact which Ukraine has on global grain markets. (4/8)

While many countries grow more food than Ukraine, it is one of the top exporters of grain, & thus has a bigger impact on global markets. Alongside Russia & Kazakhstan, research has shown that crop failures in Ukraine can trigger market shocks (5/8)
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Now let's look at a so-called 'Soil Bonitet' map of Ukraine, that gives an indication of the areas of greatest agricultural productivity. Here we can see that some of the most productive areas are to the west of the Dnieper River, & at high risk of becoming conflict zones. (6/8)

If conflict (or an insurgency) is ongoing in these areas by the beginning of the growing season in April, this will massively impact exports and drive global prices higher. Even if conflict has ended, the destruction of infrastructure will undoubtably reduce yields. (7/8)

Taking the above into consideration, the world should be prepared for significant second order effects from a coming war, and take action to stabilise global food prices. Should this not be done, even greater instability is likely throughout the developing world. (8/8)