"The economy is growing explosively but the president's approval is imploding" drives a freight train through every theory of politics that the Democrats and the media political class has used for 40 years, and they're responding by saying "Of COURSE he's unpopular, because X"
Our theory about what drives presidential approval is completely broken, we need a new one pronto, but most of the putative experts and practitioners are instead desperately adding epicycles: "It's still the economy, stupid, but 'the economy' specifically means gas prices"
Here's my proposal: what people think about Biden does not reflect what they already BELIEVE about his policy proposals, or what they are SEEING in their day-to-day lives, but mostly reflects what they are HEARING about him from each other and from the news
The normal view is that views about politicians are formed by individuals, using a combination of personal experience and ideological belief, and transmitted outwards, but to me it really looks the other way round: views form collectively, and then are transmitted to individuals.
YET AGAIN: The economy is booming by almost every objective measure and voters are lining up to punish Democrats for it like they've caused a massive recession! This destroys every theory of politics the used by the media and politicians!
It's not inflation, it's not gas prices! There is not some magic indicator you can pull out of graph somewhere that will make this all make sense. It's that our politics are driven by a media main signal that exists separate from the real world and often barely reflects it.
People don't inherently know whether the economy is good or bad, even things like increasing prices are an ambiguous, uncertain signal. They are TOLD the economy is bad, by other people. That's what is happening here.
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