Thread by @KofmanMichael

The large number of forces Russia shifted from its Eastern Military District (12 BTGs+) to Belarus is illustrative of the degree of vulnerability Moscow is comfortable with China. The Russian Far East has probably not been stripped of combat power like this in decades. /1

This large deployment from EMD, unprecedented in contemporary history, offers one additional piece of evidence that the alignment liberates both states to pursue their respective contests, without having to invest as much in hedging against each other. 2/

If Moscow does go through with a large-scale military operation, this deployment will not be short lived. It suggests Eastern MD will be understrength for quite some time and it shows a degree of Russian confidence in the relationship. 3/

At the core of the alignment is a functional non-aggression pact, which enables both countries to pursue their respective contests. The implications are significant. For those interested, in 2020 I summarized my views on this subject in a WOTR piece. warontherocks.com/2020/08/the-em…

In the end its just one data point, but it is helpful in a broader conversation on whether we see signs of Russia demonstrating a degree of strategic vulnerability in its relationship with China, versus worrying about some sort of opportunistic Chinese irredentism.