Thread by @tweetojagdish

#GulshanPoly cud double its revenue from here once both MP nd Assam's #ethanol manufacturing plants (500+200 KLPD) start commercial production in FY24. Remember March 23. Not before.

#Gulshanpoly
Q1'23 result:
Revenue: 270 Cr
EBITDA margin: 8% ;lowest in last 13 quarters
Company facing commodity cost headwinds. Row material cost and power cost increase.

#Gulshanpoly
Capax updates:
*300 cr investment required to set up 500 KLPD Ethanol plant in M.P.
Commercial production can start by end of FY 23
*185 cr for setting up 250 KLPD in Assam.
Commercial production to start in FY 24.
*150 Cr investment in grain processing segment.

#Gulshanpoly
Mgmt guidance:
Est revenue by FY 24: 2300 cr from current 1100 Cr
Est revenue by FY 25: 2800 cr
Est EBITDA magin: 13-14% from current 8%
Revenue mix will be 50:50 from Ethanol and grain processing nd Minerals processing business from current 82:18

#Gulshanpoly
Next 2 quarters there will be margin pressure.
Expecting margin improvement from Q3 onwards.

#Gulshanpoly
Best time to buy:
After Q3 Results...or around 200-220

#Gulshanpoly
Reasons: trades at 20 PE currently
Trades at Est FY 23 PE: 34-35
Better to wait for some corrections.

#Gulshanpoly
Q2'23 results.....as expected. Revenue in line but margin pressure due to coal and grain price information.

500 KLPD Ethanol plant commissioning by Q4'23.
Full utilization in FY 24.

#Gulshanpoly
Decent correction in stock. Trades around 30 PE, six months forward earnings.

Revenue will not increase much due to 100% capacity utilization.
EBITDA sud see some improvements from Q3 onwards.

But remember Q1'24. Not before...