Thread by @ScottHech

I want to put crime data in perspective. So much lying about bail reform. So I looked up NYPD arrest data on 7 major felonies in NYC each year since 2000. Crunched numbers. To see how 2020/2021 compares. Given all this talk about “reform” & “surges,” I think you’ll be surprised.

All of these numbers are available on the NYPD’s public website. Im using their numbers bc they are the ones doing the lying. And their own numbers expose the lie. Note: Arrest charges are often higher than actual charges brought. www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stat…

Let’s start here: In every year btwn 2000-2011, NYC jails averaged 12,000+ people. In 2020/2021, 53% less people are jailed. And guess what: *Substantially less serious felony arrests across the board.* Historic decarceration paralleled historic, continuing drops in crime.

The total number of major felonies (homicide, rape, robbery, burglary, assault, grand larceny, motor vehicle larceny) in 2020, the year after bail reform started, was less than every year between 2000-2019 before bail reform. 2021 was less than every year between 2000-2015. Look:

Every single person killed is one too many. Also we need to follow facts. The total number of homicides in 2020 & 2021 are less than each year from 2000-2011 (save 2009) when number of people in NYC jails was over 50% higher. Homicide numbers has nothing to do w/ bail reform.

The average number of homicides per year between 2000-2011 when NYC jails had over 12,000 people was 562. Then jail numbers started plummeting. In the last two years, w/ over 50% less people jailed: 2020 homicide numbers were 16% lower. 2021 homicides 13% lower than 2000-2011.

Still, homicides numbers were higher in 2020/2021 than in more recent previous years. What’s that about?

As NYC jail numbers started declining even more sharply after 2011, homicide rates reached remarkable, historic lows. 2013-2019 averaged just 323 per year! Unprecedented.

Please sit w/ this for a moment. For the 6 years leading up to bail reform, the NYC jail population *plummeted* from 12,000 to under 6000. At the same time, all major crime plummeted. This is clear evidence over a long period that decarceration cannot be tied to crime increases.

Today, post bail reform, unfortunately the numbers of people incarcerated in NYC jails is about the same as it was in 2019 before reforms. As of today: 5,642 people currently caged too poor to buy their freedom, & average length detention is close to a year (319 days!).

2017-2019 had lowest numbers of homicides in modern NYC history. Even an increase to the historically low average annual homicides from 2013-2019 (323) would be between a 1-10% increase. Then a once in a lifetime pandemic happened & homicide numbers increased round the country.

There were around 150 more homicides in each of 2020 & 2021 than in 2019. That’s 150 too many. But again, 2017-2019 were unprecedentedly low. And the 2020/2021 numbers are still substantially less than average annual homicides between 2000-2011 when jail populations were double.

Other crimes: There were 264 less rapes in 2021 than in 2019, the year before bail reform. 328 less rapes in 2020 than in 2019, the year before bail reform. A 15% & 18% decrease. Should we credit bail reform with reducing number of rapes just like police blame it for homicides?

There were 7745 less grand larcenies in 2020 than 2019, the year before bail reform. A 18% decrease. 2380 less in 2021 than in 2019. A 5% decrease. Should I credit bail reform? Of course not. There’s no way to determine causation based on short run statistics.

Robberies. There were 265 less robberies in 2020 than in 2019, the year before bail reform. A 2% decrease. Shouldn’t NYPD *credit* bail reform for these decreases if they’re also blaming it for any increase? Wouldn’t that be consistent?

Burglaries numbers in 2020 and 2021, while higher than the year before bail reform, were relatively consistent with years 2015-2017. Normal fluctuations.

I could keep going with this but I think it’s just helpful to see these hard numbers. To see how historically low violent crime continues to be, not just compared with “the 1980s” or “90s” when things were particularly bad. But recent history.

I think it’s also helpful to see how small increases/decreases in total numbers w/o broader context can lead to massive sounding percentage increases/decreases that can so easily be weaponized by cynical, leaders & police interest groups to mislead people into hardened opinions.

I wrote on how journalists all too easily fall for this tactic of trying to use short run statistics to make conclusions about causation. What they need to differently. And how we as consumers can be more skeptical. thenation.com/article/societ…