Thread by @alexzfinley

I’m not an expert in Putin psychology, but I’m well versed in recent Russian influence operations, and none of those were/are done in a vacuum. My guess is those successes are playing into his calculus and he truly believes the West is so polarized and corrupt, he will win 1/

He has made Russia a major factor in European energy security. He has bought (coerced?) a lot of goodwill from many European and US politicians and media influencers. In fact, many of our own politicians and “media” companies learned tactics from watching Russia 2/

So far, we’ve seen incredible unity from the West. Will it hold once this thing kicks into high gear? Will Johnson really be able to withstand the blowback once London (already reeling from Brexit) loses money and business due to sanctions? 3/

If this drags out and we head into winter with war still going, will Italy and Germany hold steady on Nord Stream 2 sanctions? What will happen with midterm elections in the US? Will Biden be so embroiled at home that Russia moves to the back burner? 4/

Putin likely thinks he has leverage on all those points and more bc he spent years laying the groundwork for our polarization, corruption, distrust of government and institutions and each other. 5/