1/ What is completely missing in the debate on the war in Ukraine is the partnership of criminal organizations: for decades it was the mafia that guaranteed a Russian-Ukrainian political alliance.
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#UkraineUnderAttack #UkrainRussiaWar
2/ An alliance that, with Putin's support, has built a multi-million empire based on the trafficking of gas, gold, tobacco, drugs, coal, timber. What has kept Ukraine and Russia united for decades is the mafia, which is absent in all debates.
3/ What turned the criminal deal upside down? The revolution of Maidan square, in 2014; the insurrection of the Ukrainian people linked to a pro-European desire. And how did Europe act? Blackmailed by the Russian gas, it left Ukraine alone.
4/ The Russian and the Ukrainian organized crime have always been partners. The most important Russian mafia organization, the Solncevskaja bratva, is governed by a diarchy: the Russian Sergej Michajlov, called "Michas", and the Ukrainian Semyon Mogilevich, called "The Brain".
5/ In the past decades, what enabled the formation of the great Russian-Ukrainian political alliance by delegating it to the mobs? The answer is gas. The gas brokerage company, RosUkrEnergo, was created in 2004 by former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma and Vladimir Putin.
6/ The alliance was based on the 3 pillars: Mogilevich, the Ukrainian boss at the top of the Russian mafia, the support of Putin and that of Firtash who revealed how the alliance was based on a criminal agreement: nothing could be done in the gas industry without Mogilevich.
7/ And now, what happened to the mafia deals? The vories (bosses) use the tension on the Ukrainian-Russian border to increase their power.
8/ The journalist Yuliya Polukhina makes a clear summary: «The beneficiaries of this war are the politicians, the oligarchs and the gangsters. Coal, gold, gasoline and tobacco. This is what they are fighting for in eastern Ukraine."
9/ If I could ask Semyon Mogilevich how this war will end, I would probably have the most useful opinion, which no analyst would be able to give. Observing the criminal dynamics means looking at the beating heart of the issues.
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