@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg Unfortunately, there's a large overlap between climate modelers and the people entrusted with the measurement data. That's a conflict of interest: They're good at finding excuses to adjust the data to match their models, & obfuscating the models' failures.
sealevel.info/hansen1988_ret…
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 2/11》Climate models (GCMs) are mediocre tools.
A “computer model” (or just “model”) is a computer program which simulates (“models”) real processes, to predict their progression.
sealevel.info/glossary.html#…
Other sorts of models also exist, such as mathematical models…
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 3/11》…and physical scale models. All of them are attempts to approximately simulate, and thereby predict, reality.
The utility and skillfulness of models is dependent on:
🗹 1(a). how well the processes which they model are understood, AND…
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 4/11》…
🗹 1(b). how faithfully those processes are simulated in the computer code, AND
🗹 2. whether the results can be repeatedly tested so that the models can be refined.
If you can check ALL those boxes, you can build a useful computer model.
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 5/11》If you can check EITHER box 1 or box 2, but not both, then you still have a fighting chance of building something useful, but it will be very challenging.
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 6/11》Specialized models, which try to model reasonably well-understood processes, like PGR or radiation transport, can be useful, because the processes they model are manageably simple and well-understood.
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 7/11》Weather forecasting models are also useful, though the processes they model are complex & poorly understood, because the models' short-term predictions are repeatedly tested, allowing the models to be refined. They can't check box 1(a) but at least they check box 2.
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 8/11》But more ambitious models, like GCMs, which try to simulate combined effects of many poorly-understood processes, over time spans far too long to allow repeated testing & refinement, are of dubious utility. They can't check ANY of the boxes.
sealevel.info/glossary.html#…
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 9/11》Note: "hindcasting" doesn't count, because:
"Any damn fool can predict the past." -Larry Niven
@Rose1962bush @TWTThisIsNow @IceAge2150 @SlymasterSteven @aSinister @HappensClimate @thinks_about_it @robhon_ @PierreTherrie19 @Willard1951 @rdqBlueRidge @TheDisproof @PenseeMagique @25_cycle @Climatehope2 @Narvuntien @MikeDel21893959 @insane_voice @AGWIsHappening @Gordon_DHG @Ceist8 @Stephen90045069 @AristotleMrs @Canadianworker2 @Nockit1 @JohnGiuliano7 @WhatAreWeReally @cow_podcast @Gladfly1 @Robert76907841 @1Astroturf @UlaLomu @Moderna5G_666 @DanielMcDonald4 @mel_wright123 @ScienceBlog3 @MartinJBern @RushhourP @RidaAller @Tempora23227548 @GeraldKutney @BL4CKsH33P6 @crankyfucker @cjtjgeol @claude_roumain @sapp_erlot @Michael71718318 @CloneDwarf @WinWithScience @theNIAorg 10/11》How well do you think weather models would predict weather if their predictions were so far into the future they couldn't be tested? Well, that's exactly the situation with GCMs.
sealevel.info/NASA_Dec2006_S…
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.