Thread by @Reuters

The U.S. plans to ban Russian oil imports.

Russia is the world's top exporter of crude and oil products combined. A ban would be unprecedented, turbocharging already sky-high prices, risking inflationary shock.

Here's what it will mean for the world reut.rs/3MyhZdq 👇

Record prices

JP Morgan predicts oil could hit a record $185 a barrel by the end of 2022 if disruption to Russian exports lasts that long, although along with most analysts polled by Reuters the bank expects a yearly average price below $100

Hit to growth

A ban on Russian oil would further slow the nascent global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

In the coming months, there is a high risk of stagflation, or little to minimal growth coupled with high inflation

Central bank impact

For the Federal Reserve, the inflationary impact has already proved too great. For the European Central Bank, the urgency of policy action is less acute as the labor market still enjoys spare capacity and there is little home-grown inflation

Substitutes?

With fossil fuel demand rebounding from the pandemic but supply around the world still tight, policymakers will be under pressure to ramp up supply despite pledges to back green energy.

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