Thread by @jimsciutto

Fourteen days since the invasion, here is where the war stands based on latest US assessments:

- US estimates of Russian military assets lost or inoperable range as high as 8-10 percent-  close to double the estimate last week as US has gathered more information.
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- US estimates the Ukrainian military has lost a similar percentage of its forces
- These estimates mostly account for losses on f military equipment - aircraft, tanks, APCs and trucks - since they are easier to verify with confidence.

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- US estimates Russia has lost somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000 service-members though this assessment comes with low confidence.
- The US does not have reliable estimates of losses of Ukrainian personnel

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- On the battlefield, Russian forces have advanced more quickly in the south, less so in the East and the North, though they continue to surround or attempt to surround cities in the N and E

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- US believes Russian forces are still several days from being able to surround Kyiv and afterward would face a protracted battle to control the city center.

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- As Russia’s advance has stalled, it has increasingly targeted civilian population centers - a trend the US believes will worsen, following Russia’s past playbook in Chechnya and Syria.

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- At least 474 civilians, including 29 children, have been killed since the invasion began, according to the UN Human Rights Office, a further 861 people injured – though the UN believes the true figure is likely to be “considerably higher”.