In 2021 countries in the west got a taste of what empty shelves at the grocery stores looked like
Is 2022 the year this problem is compounded due to the Russian invasion?
Time for a thread🧵discussing this and why many countries are now halting food and fertiliser exports
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People have grown accustomed to rising prices in the last couple of years as many places around the world have seen record breaking inflation levels
The inflation has manifested itself in food prices
Food prices were up 60% between 2020-2022 BEFORE the Russian invasion
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But I don't think we've felt the full effects of the supply chain interruptions and energy crisis of 2021 just yet
The food crisis looks set to only worsen because we continue to live through an energy crisis
Oil just surged to it’s highest level in 14 years last week!!
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High oil prices impact food prices in many different ways most people often don’t consider
Farmers who need gas to run their machinery used to maintain their crops and
truckers have to fill their tanks with gas to transport the food from farm to shop
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Oil is the lifeblood of the economy!!
Natural gas is even more relevant to the food crisis!
Nat gas and electricity prices skyrocketed in the EU and around the world in 2021
Nat gas in the EU is up 1000% since 2020 and doesn’t look like its going to slow down!!
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Natural gas is a key input to food fertiliser.
The soaring nat gas price is why we also see the price of the fertiliser and key nutrients like potassium, nitrogen and phosphorous all rocketing higher to 13 year highs
Again, all of this was occurring BEFORE 2022
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Now, what happens if it only gets worse from here?
Everybody seems to be discounting the effects that the current war will have, and is already having on the economy.
The worlds largest commodity and fertiliser producer is being heavily sanctioned..
What could go wrong...
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Brazil for example is the world's 4th largest food producer and their president was already warning of a food crisis in October of 2021, because of the above mentioned fertilizer price crisis.
AGAIN he was saying the 2022 crop would already be low before the invasion!
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When looking at a chart of the largest food exporting countries, we can see the USA and Brazil are some of the largest exporters around the world
Now, Russia ranks outside the top 10 on the list of food exporters, so where does the recent invasion fit into all of this
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Well, Russia is the world's largest fertilizer producer, accounting for 13% of the world's supply.
Many of the world's largest food exporters rely on fertilizer imports to grow their food crops.
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The big news that broke this week was the Russia is now suspending all exports of fertilizer.
This will significantly impact countries that rely on fertilizer imports to produce food.
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When looking at 2 of the 3 largest food producers in the USA and Brazil, we can see they heavily depend on fertilizer imports.
Russia supplies Brazil with
-21% of its nitrogen
-15% of its phosphate
-26% of its Potash.
Brazil looks most affected by this crisis.
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So what is the significance of all of this?
Governments all around the world have recently halted wheat and food exports
Serbia, Hungary, Egypt and Bulgaria have recently banned grain and other food exports
Lebanon and Syria are also halting rationing food supplies
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As it appears China and Russia have recently strengthened their alliance, China’s recent stockpiling of food in 2021 is becoming all the more interesting....
China is projected to control 69% of the world's maize, 60% of the world's wheat and 51% of the wheat.
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The last time the world saw rapidly rising food prices was around 2010.
Food prices doubled between 2006 and 2011!
They say that as humans we're 9 meals away from anarchy
This chart shows how social unrest is tightly correlated with the increase in food prices
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The Middle East was most effected by this period as they account for 1/3 of worldwide wheat imports.
Rising prices was the domino that tipped the people over the edge and led to a decade of wide sweeping government overthrows and revolutions all across the middle east
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So what comes next?
Which country will be most affected if this food crisis unfolds ?
Will we see an ‘’Arab Spring 2.0’’ in the Western world if this food crisis continues to worsen?
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You can watch my full video linked below, where I explain all of this and more as well as how you can protect yourself in this coming Food crisis👇
If you enjoyed this thread:
1.Follow me
@1MarkMoss
for more of these
2. Like and RT this thread
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