Russian armies have long history of getting off to slow starts, but eventually their sheer weight grinds an opponent down. When Mariupol is mopped up in the near future, those battle-tested troops will be freed up for other operations. Question is they really plan to storm Kyiv.
The NYT has been doing some halfway decent reporting on the battlefield. As Bill has described, Russia seems to have mostly held back its air force until Ukraine’s AAW network could be eradicated by long-range missiles - a goal they’ve almost now achieved. nytimes.com/2022/03/19/wor…
If these forces are headed to the western border w/Poland to cut off arms shipments, and the West remains committed to not intervening to protect them once they cross into Ukraine, that’s bad news for the Ukrainians.
A committed Russia could take Kyiv - as you say, by turning it into a Fallujah or Grozny - but many have speculated that the whole northern front is a head fake to draw attention while the Russians secure the territories they have a chance of holding.
Or, if not a pure head fake, then a gradual buildup that will eventually be under a drawn-out siege by the combined might of Russian & DPR/LPR forces. Not quite sure what to make of it myself.
According to the New York Times, the Russians have not yet achieved full air supremacy, but there’s no doubt they dominate the skies. They report Russia is flying 200+ sorties a day, while the Ukrainians are managing 5-10.
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