In Nov 2021, US Intel got info Putin was preparing to invade Ukraine. Over next months, 🇺🇲 struggled to persuade Allies to maintain united front. However, West managed neither to deter Putin from invading nor reassure him that Ukraine poses no threat
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wsj.com/articles/vladi…
WSJ recreates events leading up to 🇷🇺 invasion based on interviews with 30 policymakers.
🔹🇺🇲 hoped to integrate Putin into post-Cold War order
🔹when that failed, US&Allies didn't return to containment
🔹🇩🇪 led the EU’s big bet on peace through commerce ->energy dependence
🔹 NATO said in 2008 that Ukraine & Georgia would one day join but never followed up
🔹West had limited reaction to Russia's invasions of Georgia & Ukraine, encouraging Putin
🔹Russia saw Orange Revolution as a threat, in 2005 launched campaign to contest perceived US influence
🔹To 🇺🇲, Putin told demise of USSR was greatest geopolitical tragedy
🔹to W Europe, he said "Cold War is over" & presented himself as a democrat, opened pathways for lucrative trade,made friends with Schröder & Berlusconi
🔹2007: Putin grew more aggressive towards West
🔹2008: at Bucharest summit, Bush pushed to give Ukraine requested NATO membership plan; Berlin&Paris were against
🔹Merkel said NATO invite for Ukraine & Georgia would provoke Putin and that countries would bring no benefit to NATO
🔹"Compromise" resolution left 🇺🇦 in gray zone
🔹Next day, Putin described 🇺🇦 as "made-up country," questioned transfer of Crimea
🔹4 months later, he invaded Georgia
🔹Putin said 2011 Russian anti-election fraud protests were incited by US embassy, started crackdown on opposition
🔹Putin's fears grew with Arab Spring
🔹“[Putin's] great anxiety was that Ukraine could become economically and politically successful and that the Russians would eventually ask themselves ‘Why are our brothers doing so well, while our situation remains dire?’” - advisor to Merkel
🔹Pro-W 🇺🇦President Yushchenko lost elections in 2010, successor Yanukovych could not balance declared "friendship with both EU & Russia" course
🔹🇷🇺 called EU-Ukraine trade deal "major threat to economy," 🇺🇦 suspended talks on deal citing 🇷🇺 pressure
🔹Euromaidan Revolution
🔹Feb 2014: 🇷🇺FSB General Sergei Beseda, dispatched to Kyiv to quell Euromaidan, advises Yanukovych to deploy army & crush protests. Instead, Yanukovych flees Kyiv
🔹Putin sees Euromaidan as a US coup, in all-night meeting decides to annex Crimea
🔹Invasion of Donbas
🔹Moscow sought to regain lost political leverage in Ukraine through Minsk Agreements that Ukraine signed under duress
🔹Low-intensity war until 2022
🔹In 2014, Merkel realized Putin would never reconciliate with West yetcontinued to support commercial cooperation with Russia
🔹US Obama administr & some NATO allies started program to train 🇺🇦Army, but with limited support to not provoke 🇷🇺
🔹Trump expanded aid to Javelins but blackmailed Zelenskyy to dig up dirt on Biden
🔹Russia tried to stop US military aid by hinting at tradeoff with Venezuela
🔹2019: Zelenskyy wins presidency, rejects Russian interpretation of Minsk. Observers thought Putin loathed new 🇺🇦President
🔹Macron seeks rapprochement with Putin
🔹2021: Biden sets goal for "stable, predictable relationship with Russia" as he focused on China
🔹Sept'21: US gives Ukraine $60mn in limited military, non-offensive support
🔹27 Oct'21: US Intel Director warns Russia could invade by end of Jan'22
🔹Nov'21: US prepares $200 mn package but puts it on hold, calculating it wouldn't deter Putin & could provoke him
🔹🇺🇲DefSec Austin opted for cautious approach, with paramount goal to avoid confrontation btw 🇺🇲&🇷🇺
🔹Dec'21: 🇷🇺 issues NATO&US ultimatum to revise post-Cold War security order
🔹27 Dec'21: Biden allows more arms shipments to 🇺🇦
🔹9 Jan'22: 🇺🇲 General Mingus attempts to dissuade Russia from invading, saying it would be a quagmire, to no reaction
🔹European leaders don't believe 🇺🇲 Intel re: invasion
🔹mid-Jan'22: CIA director Burns warns Zelenskyy in Kyiv that 🇷🇺 would attempt to seize Hostomel airfield
🔹Macron&Scholtz make last attempts to talk Putin out of invading 🇺🇦. Putin complains of 🇷🇺 "historical grievances," Scholtz warns of severe sanctions
🔹19 Feb'22: Scholtz tells Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 should renounce NATO aspirations & declare neutrality as part of W-Russia security deal
🔹Pact would be signed by Putin & Biden, who would jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security, Scholtz said. Zelenskyy answered Russia could not be trusted&that Ukrainians support NATO
🔹20 Feb'22: Putin calls off planned call with Biden,decides to recognize puppet Donbas enclaves
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