Thread by @kamilkazani

Prediction

As May 9 is the major symbolic date for the Russian state cult of the "Great Victory", it also serves as a psychological benchmark for Z-war. Thus on May 9 Putin will feel pressure to declare either:

1. A tactical victory
2. A rapid escalation

Let's discuss both🧵

Why would Putin declare a tactical victory? Well, because he can't declare a strategic one. Russian people are not that stupid. What Putin could do is achieve some tactical success and present it as a major symbolic victory which would show that the war is going somewhat okayish

What could serve as a symbolic victory showing that Russia hadn't failed its invasion totally by May 9? Most probably, the capture of Mariupol. Siege of Mariupol has been going for two months but the Russians didn't crush the last pocket of resistance on the Azovstal steel plant

Mariupol had been bombed and attacked by pro-Russian forces for months with massive casualties. From the military standpoint it might make little sense: isolating this city and cutting its supply lines would be more reasonable. But it has a significant symbolic value

Mariupol is a large urban centre of the Russophone East Ukraine which Russians were supposed to "liberate". And yet, it turned into the centre of resistance. While resistance in Galicia is something Russian worldview would allow for, resistance in "Novorossiya" is unacceptable

The very fact that the Russophone troops from the East Ukraine do even resist is absolutely shocking for Kremlin. Furthermore, the two-months-long defence of Mariupol in an absolutely desperate situation made it a sort of Alcazar-like symbol, which should be crushed at any cost

While Russian propaganda focuses on the Azov participation in the defence of Mariupol, portraying them as Nazis, we should consider that for Russian propaganda a "Nazi" is first and foremost a racial or cultural traitor who could be Russian but refused to. "Nazi" = "вырусь"

Nazis = those who could Russify but chose not to. Look at the birthplace regions of the Azov commanders

Kharkiv is *the* centre (3). Three commanders r from there including the founder. Next are Kyiv and Poltava (2). Finally, Sumy and Luhansk (1)

Not a single one from the West

I'll cover the history of Azov later. For now I'll say that it debunks the Russian myth about "bad Nazi West" controlling "good Russian East" of Ukraine. In fact it is large Russophone cities of the East, especially Kharkiv, that are the main clusters of Ukrainian nationalism

While Russians portray Ukrainian nationalism as an essentially Western, Galician phenomenon, in fact Galicia provides more of a cultural standard than the actual leadership. Lviv would be more of a Tuscany of the Ukrainian national movement, while Kharkiv would be its Piedmont

This explains much of Russian anger against Ukrainian resisters. As Shahnazarov told:

"Z-letter opposers must understand they won't be spared". Instead they'll get "concentration camps, re-education, sterilisation"

Notice there's no talk of "Nazis", only of "Z-letter opposers"

Journalist Olshansky suggests publicly hanging Azov defenders of Mariupol while making local civilians to watch. And leave them hang for awhile as a horrifying reminder of who's a master here

Russian propagandists lowkey admit that Russian rule can be imposed only through terror

That's a Moscow journalist Dmitry Olshansky who calls for public executions while making civilians to watch in order to establish dominance. He isn't some lunatic but rather a member of hereditary cultural establishment of Moscow and a strong advocate for the war with Ukraine

There is a strong indication that Putin will try to capture Azovstal by May 9. Why? Because he claimed otherwise. On April 21 he publicly told to Shoigu that soldiers "shouldn't descend into the catacombs" and lose lives. Which means he *will* send them into the catacombs

Azovstal tunnels & bunkers were built in the Soviet era when the prospect of a nuclear war looked imminent. They were designed in a way to survive a nuclear strike. (That's why they became a safe heaven for civilians). Those trying to capture Azovstal will suffer heavy casualties

Why Putin is so comfortable with losing men who must go into the Azovstal catacombs and die there en masse? Well, cuz he won't send Russians there. He'll send Ukrainians. I strongly suspect that most of Russian casualties in Z-war were not Russians but forcibly drafted Ukrainians

Have you ever considered how pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics" recruited their troops? Their armies went through three stages of development:

1. Volunteers
2. Mercenaries
3. Total mobilisation

Now we are on a stage 3. Every male up to 55-60 is a cannon fodder

Initially pro-Russian forces in Donbass were comprised from volunteers. Some of them were Russian nationalists or adventurists. Others were members of local administrations and law enforcement. Third were real local volunteers. All were led by a Russian FSB colonel Strelkov

With the war going on, DPR and LPR soon ran out of volunteers. Fortunately, in a war-devastated Donbass they could hire fighters cheaply. Where did they take the cash to pay them? Well, Russian gave it. Russians subsidised DPR and LPR puppets to keep the Donbass war going on

Russian subsidies allowed to pay a 25 000 rubles salary to everyone who enlisted to fight against Ukraine. In a war-torn Donbass that was often the only job available. Since these people enlisted for cash they were mocked as twenty-five-thousanders referring to their low morale

And yet, a mercenary army of twenty-five-thousanders wasn't good enough. First, it's still costly. Why pay anything when you can pay nothing? Besides, with the high casualties they soon ran out of mercenaries, too. Since 2015 they started experimenting with forced mobilisation

At this point pro-Russian DPR and LPR authorities are forcing anyone under 55-60 into the army and sending them into the frontline assaults to the heavily fortified Ukrainian positions. Of course, they are being massacred. Listen to Strelkov who started it all

That's how the Donetsk and Luhansk armies look like. Notice their equipment, helmets for example. Russians forced these Ukrainian nationals into their puppets' armies, gave them whatever garbage remained from the Soviet stocks and sent them to die

In Vkontakte they discuss mobilised DPR soldiers in Mariupol with obsolete equipment like Mosinka guns originally based on 1891 design and not used in the army since the 1950s:

"I very much hope they are not being sent forward as meat in the first line"

Well, of course they are

"Fucking shame, they recruited them as meat, thanks for not giving them forks to fight. They gave them helmets of 1941. You couldn't make up a better anti-ad"

"It's sad when the entire company has Mosinkas"

"That's a shame"

"After a month they could've brought some equipment"

"Nazis are being supplied by half a Europe and the US and these guys are fighting with Mosinkas"

"I feel bed for these men. They never fought, don't know anything. They're common workers from a coals mine and they don't even have ammunitions. Damn. Why did they send them there?"

They're literally crowfonding the basic equipment for the forcibly mobilised DPR and LPR soldiers. Here for example they managed to crowdfund 3600 rubles to buy them shovels. Notice the reactions of gratitude below the post

Russian volunteer who served in the LPR army but then deserted and made it back to Russia is describing "the literal utilisation of the LPR male population"

Forcibly mobilised Ukrainians nationals are being sent to attack Ukrainian positions "naked" without even the body armour

As the Donbass war has been going since 2014, Ukrainians had time to build very thorough fortifications. Notice how a Russian TV correspondent is describing an abandoned Ukrainian position. Why would he need to show that? Well, to show why Russian advance goes slower than planned

Watch these mobilised Ukrainian nationals from the Donbass who are being press-ganged into the army by Russians and sent into the frontal assaults as the cannon fodder. This gives some context to how the male population of Donbass is being "recycled" (утилизировать) in Z-war

That's how a mobilisation is proceeding in the Donetsk People's Republic. Males 18-60 can't show up on the street because they will be press ganged immediately. Some hide at home. Others live at their jobs and never leave the building. If you show up outside, you'll be recycled

In Donetsk and Luhansk they are literally catching people on streets and press-ganging them into the army. That's very advantageous. Recycling Ukrainian nationals in a war against Ukraine allows to keep Russian official casualty numbers law. Very smart decision

Let me give you an example. A famous pianist from Donetsk was killed in action near Mariupol in April. How did he even get to the army? He was press-ganged and according to the unconfirmed info from the social media, press-ganged by a trick

"Philharmonie was cheated!!! they were told to come to "record a nice video, and then go back home... but instead they were all taken in an unknown direction!!"

"We were told the same, they cheated us too. Opera, circus. Donbass"

"He was not a volunteer!!! Like all musicians!"

On February 28 Pushilin of the Donetsk People's Republics declared they're stopping the mobilisation. That didn't happen ofc, instead they accelerated it, launching a total mobilisation. Ukrainian nationals are too convenient cannon fodder for Russia

Some argue that Russians might be doing the same on newly occupied territories. It may be easy to do. Organise a "council" that will ask to join the DPR or LPR. Then launch total mobilisation. That is a "council" in Rozovskii District of Zaporizhzhia Oblast asking to join the DPR

Russian forces are composed of at least three separate structures: Russian regulars, Chechens and the Donbass armies. Whereas Chechens PR the hardest of all, it is the forcibly mobilised Ukrainian nationals from Donbass who likely suffer the most casualties. They are expendable

With the war going on, Russian leadership will be incentivise to scale up Donbass political and socioeconomic model of total mobilisation and impose it all over Russia (North Korea scenario). And yet, there are some problems which make it harder to execute

Why is forcibly mobilised cannon fodder from Donbass so docile? Well, because they can't really do anything. And why can't they? Because they are too far from Russian centers of political power. Should they rebel, they will be crushed by the far better equipped Russian army

Russian regulars will easily suppress any discontent of those conscripts, while those who give orders to those regulars are simply beyond their reach. And why are they beyond their reach? Because they are far away

There might be lots of discontent among the Donbass mobilised. But this discontent presents no danger because they are concentrated too far away from the Russian centres of political power. And vice versa, if any substantial mass mobilised force is quartered nearby, that's a risk

Moscow is by far the most important transport hub in Russia. Pretty much all of long distance auto-, air- and most importantly railway routes from south to north, from west to east, etc necessarily have to pass through this city. There are few options to bypass it

In case of total mobilisation with a military doctrine that doesn't include an option of total mobilisation and with an infrastructure for total mobilisation dismantled, we'll almost inevitably see a huge concentration of conscripts stuck in Moscow on their way to Ukraine

Total mobilisation presents a political rise not so much because of discontent it creates, as because of possible overconcentration of unmotivated armed people with immediate self-interest in overthrowing regime in immediate proximity to the seat of political power

In other words, total mobilisation presents a significant risk for the regime because the flows of the mobilised will necessarily have to go through Moscow and many will be stuck there for a long time. That's why launching it all over the country would be dumb

And yet, if mobilisation is declared only in regions immediately bordering Ukraine, such as Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov, then cannon fodder flows don't have to pass through Moscow, thus reducing revolutionary risks dramatically. End of 🧵