Thread by @Mason_R_Clark

May 6 Update: few RUS gains in eastern Ukraine, no movement in the south, grinding combat in Azovstal. And more notably - Ukrainian forces retook further territory around Kharkiv. Some implications of this developing Ukrainian counteroffensive: 1/11 isw.pub/RusCampaignMay6

Ukrainian forces captured several settlements northeast of Kharkiv today, building on previous advances this week. Ukrainian forces may be poised to push RUS forces out of tube artillery range of the city in the coming days. 2/11

This operation is developing into a broader counteroffensive – as opposed to the more localized counterattacks Ukrainian forces have conducted throughout the war to secure key terrain and disrupt Russian offensive operations. 3/11

Ukrainian forces are notably retaking territory along a broad arc around Kharkiv rather than focusing on a narrow thrust, unlike most Ukr counterattacks to date, which have focused on retaking key tactical terrain or disrupting Russian capabilities to conduct attacks. 4/11

(For context - the Mykolayiv counteroffensive March 14-18 attacked a narrow front against overextended RUS forces... 5/11 isw.pub/RusCampaginMar… and

...and Ukr forces made large gains around Kyiv only after RUS forces began to withdraw and was not initially conducted as a counteroffensive, though that was a bit "you can't fire me, I quit" by RUS forces, Ukr forces were building momentum). isw.pub/RusCampaignApr3 6/11

So the scale/objectives of the current Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv are noteworthy, as the Ukrainian military is clearly aiming to retake large chunks of occupied territory from static Russian units and relieve pressure on Kharkiv, not just make tactical advances. 7/11

Kyiv's concentration of the forces necessary for this offensive, rather than deploying these available forces to eastern Ukraine, additionally indicates their confidence in repelling (stalled) Russian ops to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk area. 8/11

While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to directly threaten Russian lines of communication to Izyum (which run further east of Kharkiv, see our battle map), they will likely relieve Russian pressure on Kharkiv and possibly threaten further advances to the Russian border. 9/11

I'll caution against over-projecting this Ukrainian success, as the RUS units around Kharkiv are primarily a screening force rather than the larger concentrations around Izyum/Severodonetsk/etc and a long road remains to retake all Russian-occupied territory. 10/11

But overall, this offensive will likely force RUS to redirect forces intended for Izyum/Severodonetsk or lose their positions around Kharkiv, and is a promising indicator of Ukr offensive capabilities 71 days into the war. 11/11