Thread by @kamilkazani

When discussing the future of Russia, many rule out this or that scenario as "impossible". But how do they know what is possible and what is not? The main reason why people are so bad in prognosing the future is that they can't conceive how different is the present from the past

Most people underestimate how different is the present from the (recent) past. And that lack of historical thinking leads to underestimating how different the things will be in the (near) future. That's why people presumptuously rule out possibility of sudden and abrupt changes

Consider the following. A Westerner X who knows post-Soviet space more deeply than many, expected the Russian army to crush Ukrainians in a few day. He wasn't ignorant or ill-informed. He travelled to Russia and Ukraine extensively, visited their military, etc

Why X's prognosis was so wrong? Partially because his last trip to Donbass happened in the mid-2010s when the things were *very* different from now. And indeed, the prospect of Ukrainian army standing their ground against a full scale Russian invasion was unrealistic back then

X. made a trip. Visited the region, visited the military. Made (correct) estimate that in case of a full-scale clash, Ukraine gonna be destroyed quickly. And left off for years. What he missed however, that a lot happened during those years and changed the balance of power

As a general rule we underestimate how dynamic this world is. We also tend to forget that major Metamorphoses, though happening over the years, reveal themselves suddenly and abruptly. That's why we are so shocked after every such revelation. And again. And again. And again

A theory. The main reason why we are so bad in predictions is that we seek psychological comfort more than intellectual integrity. We are so attached to the delusions of "consistency" and "immutability" that it destroys our ability to make accurate prognoses in a dynamic world

PS this is not a thread. I'm done