Thread by @chrisdier

White supremacists who commit these terrorist acts collectively believe in the "great replacement theory" (GRT) - a conspiracy that Jews & elites are replacing white ppl w non-Europeans. This myth is based on a distortion of statistics, pseudohistory, & white supremacism. /thread

Declining birth rates for whites and immigration fears are driving GRT. Let's look at the demographic transition model. This model assists w understanding/predicting demographics by analyzing birth rates and death rates. The model has five stages.

In Stage 1: Before the Industrial Revolution, both birth rates and death rates are high, so the population remains relatively consistent - with the obvious exception of plagues and natural disasters.

Stage 2: modern medicine and better food supply lower death rates, but birth rates remain high because societies are still predominantly agricultural - resulting in a rapid population boom. Europe and the US approached this stage in the late 1700s/1800s.

Today, lesser economically developed countries are in stage 2. E.g., Yemen is still in stage two but transitioning to stage 3.

Stage 3: birth rates decrease, usually due to improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s rights, access to contraception, and a need for fewer children due to increasing urbanization. Population growth stabilizes. Most economically developing countries are in Stage 3.

Kenya and Colombia are examples of countries in Stage 3.

Having multiple kids when you live in a crowded city and not on a rural farm. An IIED (2013) study analyzed 83 developing countries and concluded that the “average difference between rural and urban TFRs being 1.5 children per woman.” pubs.iied.org/sites/default/…

Stage 4: birth and death rates drop, thus stabilizing the population. These are economically developed countries with higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women, and low fertility rates.

Canada and the US are currently in Stage 4

Stage 5: fertility rates drop significantly below replacement level (2 children), and the elderly population far outnumbers the youth. (some demographers don’t include a stage 5)

All countries in stages 4 and 5 have lower birth rates - not just white-majority countries. Japan and South Korea have some of the lowest birth rates in the world. More urbanized and economically developed countries have lower birth rates.

White Americans are following the same pattern as other demographics across the globe. Plus, it’s not just white Americans experiencing lower fertility rates. abcnews.go.com/Health/us-birt…

It should be noted that many countries reached higher stages quicker than others due to their exploitation of the global South. Economic systems based on colonialism/imperialism led to economic development that inevitably lowered birth rates.

Fear of immigrants overtaking the US is another foundation of the GRT myth. But immigration trends haven’t statistically significantly shifted as many GRT adherents claim. In 1860, the immigrant share of the total US population was 13.2%. Today, it’s 13.7%.

The best way to curtail mass migrations is to support programs that help poorer nations economically develop. White supremacists advocate the opposite and consistently support policies that perpetuate migration.

Some countries in stage 5 have a labor shortage and turn to immigration. E.g., Japan’s right-wing gov’t is opening the doors to immigration. foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/jap…

Germany, also a country in Stage 5, also depends on immigration as its population is increasingly aging. schengenvisainfo.com/news/german-la…

It should be noted that the demographic transition model, like all models, has severe limitations. But it does prove there’s no conspiracy to drive white birth rates down to replace whites w immigrants - it’s simply a pattern of societies that economically develop and urbanize.

Proponents of GRT claim this is part of a “white genocide,” but it doesn’t fit any definition of genocide. A demographic voluntarily deciding not to have as many children as their parents isn’t genocide; it’s a product of economic development. un.org/en/genocidepre…

Arguably one of the most prominent narratives that serve as a foundation for this myth is the alleged “large scale killing” of white farmers in South Africa. However, there is no evidence that white farmers are killed at disproportionate rates.

But the murder rate on South African farms declined to the lowest rates in 20 years - 1/3 of the 1998 levels (Agri South Africa, 2018). thesouthafrican.com/farm-murders-a…

Despite the lack of evidence, Anders Breivik, the Norwegian white supremacist who killed 69 summer camp goers, dedicated an entire section of his manifesto to this issue.

James Pogue beautifully dismantled that myth. pulitzercenter.org/stories/myth-w….

Contrary to popular belief, the GRT isn’t solely exclusive to sites like 4chan. Mainstream conservatives embrace some of its core tenets. Despite its inaccuracy and ties to white supremacy, folks like Coulter and Trump still peddle this myth. Peep Trump’s tweet in 2018:

Tucker Carlson routinely perpetuates this myth on Fox News. In 400+ episodes, Carlson claimed that Democratic politicians are trying to force demographic change via immigration, a key GRT talking point. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

This is why white supremacists like David David and Nick Fuentes continually support his rhetoric.

GRT adherents purport that Jews drive this “replacement” and “white genocide” to economically advance. Unsurprisingly, its origins stem from early eugenicists.

In 1916, Madison Grant, an American eugenicist, published “The Passing of the Great Race,” which popularized the notion that the “Nordic race” was facing extinction due to racial assimilation. His work was quickly picked up by Nazis and became standard Nazi propaganda.

Adolf Hitler called Grant’s book his “Bible.” The “Reich Institute” published a pamphlet titled “Are the White Nations Dying? The Future of the White and the Colored Nations in the Light of Biological Statistics” in 1934. It helped set the foundations for the Holocaust.

These remnants of Nazi ideology survived and gained monument from a 1950 book “Théorie du Racisme,” by fascist René Binet. US neo-Nazis and fascists fully embraced this idea and propelled the idea that Jews were orchestrating this replacement.

This is why the white supremacists in Charlottesville chanted, “Jews will not replace us.” Not because they felt it was Jews who were replacing white people, but because they believed Jews were the main drivers behind this alleged replacement.

This rhetoric isn’t new throughout history - it’s simply a resurgence of nativist, racist, and Anti-Semitic sentiment. The mentality dates back to 19th-century eugenicists and xenophobes, KKK ideology, and Nazi propaganda.

These conspiracies always lead to anti-immigrant and racist policies, massacres/hate crimes, and other measures that cause actual, material harm.

I hope this gives insight on why the GRT is wildly inaccurate and rooted in white supremacy - not facts or statistical data. It needs to be confronted and dismantled bc too many are getting stuck in these algorithmic cul-de-sacs.

This thread isn’t an exhaustive list, so feel free to add on.

Having multiple kids when you live in a crowded city and not on a rural farm is not feasible.*