AAshish RK Agarwal🔆⚡️ Profile picture
CA | All India Ranks 💡 Mentor | Investor 🙌 Technofunda⚡️Believer in Equity 🔆 All views are personal

May 28, 2022, 12 tweets

Thread 🧵 on #Gujalkali

Giant in Making ⚡️

CMP 799 💎

2018 highs around similar levels ⚡️ when the company was doing 2500 crs sales and had ~2000 crs FA

Note the 2018 numbers while you go through the transformation journey the company is into in last 2-3 yrs⚡️

#stockmarket

#Productmix

Over the years, the product mix has changed from being heavy only on caustic soda to diversifying on caustic soda derivatives and other products like phosphoric acid, hydrogen hydrate, and many others

#Productionmix

Against popular belief that company earns and is dependent mostly on caustic soda, its has diversified itself into derivatives and other product groups, a mix from FY21

Even the new capacities are taking care of the mix ⚡️

#Strategy

All ingredients to transform into a Giant

Still available at highs of 2018 ⚡️

#Capex

JV with NALCO commissioned in May 2022⚡️

Other projects coming in Q2 and Q3
2022

So march 2022 end FA of 2700 Crs will increase to over 6500 Crs by March 23 along with the investment in JV ⚡️

Thats a massive 2.5x jump

Company’s market cap today ~5900 crs will be less than the FA+ Investment in JV at over 6500 Crs in a years time

Current Book value at 804 😅😇

Massive investment will lead to at-least 2x revenues, thus current mcap will be less than 1x sales ⚡️

Company’s dependency on caustic soda remains to be a risk

However, in the wrost case, increasing capacities will take care of absolute margins

Best part is even after all these investments, company has only ~600 crs debt

Debt will be repaid in next 2 quarters with the cash flows i.e debt free

⚡️ Future conservative numbers : Just to be on a safer side

FY 24 sales : Over 8000 Crs
Assets + Investment: Over 6500 Crs

5 yr avg margin of 25%

With this FY24 PBT at 1750 and PAT 1250 crs

Market Share Increase:⚡️

With the additions, MS to increase across the products

Caustic from 11 to 21%
Chloromethane from 12 to 23%
Phosphoric to 45%
Hydrogen Hydrate to 60% in the country and 9% global, monopoly in India

These are significant from price making prospective

Do your own research on this and take a call accordingly 💡

Caustic soda demand has increased drastically in the recent times due to increased use of batteries and also in other applications

Never ever has the margin dipped to single digits in last 12 yrs, do your own cal ⚡️💎

At last Shareholding :

~80% is held by 12 entities ⚡️

So free float is just minimal of ~ 1200 crs

Recent tie up with #GAIL for bioethanol plant : 500 KLD is huge #ethanol

The one with #NALCO on caustic soda has already started production in May

So growing organically as well as through tie ups, Giant in Making (CMP 799) ⚡️

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