Going thru charts, these 5 stood out:
1. Last week's rally triggered a couple of breadth thrusts. Here's one based on the 5-day advance/declines ratio, courtesy of the great Jim Stack. @NDR_Research 1/5
2. Friday was a 11:1 up day based on our database of common stocks. That follows one on May 13, but because May 18 was a 10:1 down day, another 10:1 up day is needed for a double 10:1 breadth thrust signal. (w/o a 10:1 down day in between). 2/5
3. The March rally triggered some breadth thrusts, too, so I'm watching for confirmation from some that have been harder to hit lately. The 10-day advances/declines ratio hasn't fired since Feb 2021. 3/5
4. The $SPX has priced in a slowdown but not a recession. At first, 18% declines that overlap with recessions look like those that don't overlap. If no recession, a sustainable rally *should* start soon. If not, a few more tough quarters could lie ahead.
5. An earnings slowdown is inevitable. This indicator based on the y/y change in the EPS growth rate should be in the bearish zone by the end of Q2. The question is it a slowdown or major earnings recession (-20% y/y), which have only occurred around economic recessions? 5/5
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