Thread by @xFoudres

#EGLD AND ALTCOIN SEASON ON CHAIN/CHART ANALYSIS AUGUST 2022 [THREAD]

the BTC.D validated my first scenario (tweet mentionned), matching with a correction of BTC, I imagined an end of structure more bullish (1), but the BTC offers us a correction which seems more bearish (2)

although the correction seems bearish, we could very well be surprised by an impulse towards 28k so, I am neither really bullish nor really bearish

(I will analyze $EGLD in more detail at the end of the thread based on the analysis of BTC and its dominance)

The flight of ETH against BTC gave a lot of fuel to the ALT especially this early August

I had alerted you at the beginning/middle of July to be careful on the alts, that did not miss, ETH having sucked up a lot of liquidity, but as soon as this one calmed down, a mini alt season is in progress

I think this can continue for a few more weeks until the end of the summer, but you have to be very careful, BTC.D can't go down forever.

What's next ?

(1) :

BTC is giving us a nice impulse by breaking the weekly MA200 and Daily MA100 towards 28-30k

In the case where the bottom is already set, several scenarios can be imagined but at this stage it is only speculative

I think that here BTC will regain dominance, this does not mean that Alts will dump, only that BTC will attract the majority of capital.

the return of BTC is often stunning and leaves the alts behind

(2) :

BTC will bounce off the Daily MA100 and continue to move below the Weekly MA200

The bear market is not over and will leave us in trouble for a few more months as we saw during the lasts bearmarkets

In this case, after a phase of regaining dominance during the downturn we may see the alts recover few % of dominance during the lull that follows, but difficult to know how far the BTC.D can rise if BTC decline now

It is only in case 2 that I see the alts losing a lot of value in USD, in case 1 they will certainly continue to gain in USD value, only more weakly than the BTC, or maybe range

Now #EGLD :

Against BTC, EGLD draws a rather bullish structure under the MA100 Daily, we could easily return to touch the MA200 and purple box and then back in long range accumulation below this one

#ElrondCommunity

its difficult to predict how alts will react until next halving, we can only hope not to see a new low vs BTC. I'm not especially bearish, but alt is alt and bearmarket is bearmarket

EGLD/USDT :

In the last few days EGLD has validated a contracting flat in ABC, so we have to be careful with the reaction with the Daily MA100, the breakout and a correction above it will depend on how long alts can still over-perform BTC

in the case of a rejection, it would be good if EGLD could establish its accumulation range between $40 and 70$ without making a new low, if on the other hand we manage to range above 70$ it would be very bullish for the next bull run

in conclusion, this summer has seen a great performance of alts, specifically in June when the BTC was in the direction of 20k, the majority of alts have held up very well.

Although a bottom on BTC seems quite likely here, nothing says that a purge on alts will not happen again

That's why we have to pay attention to their reactions depending on what the BTC will do in the next weeks/months.

if your goal is to accumulate the most of a particular Alt, learning to manage it against BTC can be game changer for the next bull run

ETH and the merge will also have a big role to play in the coming months. The merge is scheduled for September 19th, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sell the news in early September, which would fit with my different scenario

Currently we are working on the daily MA100, in the best case we could see ETH at $2200 by the merge but it remains very optimistic, personally I start taking profits vs BTC at each new high

Thank you for reading this monthly overview of the BTC.D and the altcoin season index. Be careful during this month of August, don't get caught up in the fomo