Thread by @ncdave4life

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk Blaming fires on climate change is "Cargo Cult Science." There is no scientific basis for it. Man-made climate change does not significantly affect the risk or severity of fires. Fire severity depends mostly on land management & forestry practices, not air temperatures.

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk There's no evidence that global warming (or warmer temperatures in general) worsen forest fires. Droughts do increase fire risk, but droughts are not worsening. Here's a paper, and a graph from it (except that I added the horizontal lines):

nature.com/articles/sdata…

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk Politics plays an outsized role in Australian wildfires. Here're some Australians with relevant expertise, unlike CSIRO's notoriously politicized climate scientists:

1. volunteerfirefighters.org.au/scientist-davi…

2. saltbushclub.com/2020/01/06/wil…

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk For lands to be managed well, they must be managed by people with an interest in them: i.e., locally controlled. Here's an instructive lecture, by Montana State Sen. Jennifer Fielder, who's also CEO of the American Lands Council, at ICCC13:

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk Politics is often a problem. In 2011 the Obama Admin gutted USFS's firefighting capability, by abruptly canceling the contract for P-3 Orion firefighting planes, "the backbone of the aerial firefighting arsenal." That worsened the 2012 Calif fire season.

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk The company which operated the Orions was Aero Union. The Obama Administration's action put them out of business. Their six big four-engine P-3 Orion tankers were the core of our aerial firefighting capabilities.
wildfiretoday.com/2012/01/17/aer…

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk The P3s were very economical, compared to either buying new planes or fighting fires without them. They were the "big boys," with about twice the payload of the two-engine P-2 Neptunes, and much better safety records. They had 1.5x the payload of the new BAe-146 jets.

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk The Obama Admin's action was apparently timed to intentionally do maximum damage to Aero Union. They cancelled Aero Union's contract on the very day that a seventh P-3 Orion, newly outfitted for firefighting, was scheduled to enter service.

Here's a P-3:

@benmooreau @EthonRaptor @agentsinaction @TheDisproof @Rockknocker61 @Anvndarnamn5 @markinkorea @S_D_Mannix @B_Bolshevik100 @Willard1951 @JimBowersclimb @jhgates1 @Climatehope2 @JustThi30117912 @aznatv2 @lheal @2xBeepBoopVodka @Veritatem2021 @Trikkynikky1 @WillWat6 @Ceist8 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @wille99 @Data79504085 @0Sundance @ShroedingerBird @AristotleMrs @glinch72 @Jaisans @atherton_chris @ItsTheAtmospher @3GHtweets @DGinCheshire @BointonGiles @AuroriaTwittori @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @Jakegsm @EricWil06256732 @DTGvmd @PaulDFarrar @Hji45519156 @KCTaz @Valja46Zhark5 @drochir_thonnuk Putting Aero Union out of business not only deprived the USFS of most of the large firefighting planes they used, it also impacted the maintenance of the MAFFS systems that Aero Union built, used on other firefighting planes.
wildfiretoday.com/2012/07/06/wit…