New blog post - Dysgenics by the Numbers: Quantifying the Fall of Civilization.
After looking through the literature I estimate that the global average IQ will reach 74 by the year 2100.
How do I get this number?
My prediction combines the rate of genetic decline within nations (0.6 IQ points per decade) and the rate of dysgenics between countries.
Low IQ countries have a much higher fertility rate which will take a while to fall to the replacement rate.
Whilst Africa had a population of 200 million in 1800 the UN predicts Sub-Saharan Africa will have a population of 4 billion by 2100.
This will dramatically reduce per capita welfare in the world.
So what if the global average IQ falls to 74 by 2100? Does this matter?
Using up-to-date estimates of the effect of IQ on GDP, I find that dysgenics will reduce GDP per capita by 30% by 2050 and 58% by 2100.
By contrast, climate change is predicted to cost us only 4% by 2050.
If you want to learn more about the numbers behind these calculations, then you should read the whole blog at Anglo Reaction.
georgefrancis.substack.com/p/dysgenics-by…
Can anyone see the gif in the article? It seems to be intermittent when I read it with Google Chrome.
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