Thread by @SquireDigital

1/ Svatove thread

The Lyman operation started before the Balakiia one, so the plan must be bigger than the Kupiansk pocket.

How many Russians are here.

They have reportedly already fled from Dvorichna and Svatove.

This means they have basically abandoned some 5000+ Izium rem

2/ The meticulous Swede @DefMon3 has documented a lot more Russians here, but I think a lot of these must be gone.

3/ This is a must read thread on the formation of 3 new Ukrainian battle groups.

4/ I disagree with one thing, @secretsqrl123
places one of the new groups in Kherson.

There is really no evidence for this.

5/ There was one captured M113 on the Kherson front.

Everybody was looking for the M113s, and finding one would reassure Russia that the whole show was in Kherson.

It would have been smart to leave a broken down M113 there for the Russians to find.

6/ I keep talking about Melitopol, but I still think 1 of the 3 new divisions is hidden in Zhapoirzhzhia ready to head south.

One is in Kharkiv, and one is in reserve.

The reserve division must now headed to Kharkiv, with the unexpected collapse there.

/7 More crazyness.

@HN_Schlottman puts 25,000 Russians in the Lysychansk - Sievierodonetsk - Popansa area.

Yet, there are reports of the Ukrainian flag beging raised in Lysychansk.

If these Russians are running away, the war in the Donbas if over.

8/ The 25,000 Russians in the Lysychansk - Sievierodonetsk - Popansa area were supplied by the rail link from Kupiansk to Kreminna.

It is now out of service.

They will have huge problems relying on the Starobilsk rail link.

9/ Reportedly at Kyslivka (Kharkiv Oblast). On the road between Kupiansk and Svatove.

10/ In the last tweet, I should have credited @Blue_Sauron for identifying Kyslivka as the location in the video.

11/ Russians report Ukraine is massing for an attack in Vuhledar. They try to transfer RuAF who fled north Kharkiv to reinforce the road to Mariupol.

My prediction for a new Ukrainian divisions taking Melitopol, may be wrong. Mariupol could be the goal.

12/ Russians flee Starobilsk.

If this holds, the only chance for resupply of 25,000 RuAf is through Luhansk.

At Stalingrad, about 90,000 Germans were taken POW, 25k is somewhat less, but still..

13/ RuAF reported fleeing Snihurvika, main strongpoint in Kherson.

Unless they regroup in Kherson city, it is all over.

Still 20k Russians in the pocket, and likely ZERO new ZSU (Offensive was fake).

So they lost by despair, demoralization, and #NAFO

14/ Very odd they are fleeing Starobilsk south instead of north.

Seems unlikely ZSU has blocked northern route.

They could be planning some sort of "Little Big Horn" style last stand in Luhansk?

15/ Russians are taking the idea of a third ZSU division in Vuhledar seriously.

The main practical goal of this whole "special operation" was to open road communication with Crimea, and unblock the Dnieper canal.

Loss of Mariupol would undo all that.

16/ Video of the Russian convoy heading to Mariupol.

@DefMon3 notes that they don't have any IFFs (Z O V) so this might be a completely fresh unit in Ukraine.

17/ "All war is based on deception."

theguardian.com/world/2022/sep…

18/ Why are the Starobilsk Russians fleeing south, instead of north to the border?

While his army is finished fighting, Putin is not.

He must establish a defensible line, to save any part of the Donbas.

There is only one place, at the existing fortifications of the 2014 line.

19/ And Putin must again follow his teacher, and go entirely on the defensive, by committing everything to a new "Atlantic Wall"

30 Offensive BTGs are in the Lysychansk area, they must be sent south.

Russia is again in a race with the ZSU to save or break the Crimea corridor.

20/ If there are really 4 Brigades of newly trained, well armed Ukrainians hiding in Vuhledar or Zhaporizhzhia, ready to head south, Russia will lose this race.

Both sides are increasingly acting like this is true.

21/ A hint of something big in the south, is Ukraine's Inexplicableness attacks towards Severodonetsk.

Here is highest density of RuAF on earth, ca. 25,000. Attacks here will accomplish nothing.

Unless object is to delay 25,000 Russians heading south.

22/ For the last day, rumors about Kherson frontline RuAF troops negotiating for surrender have been making the rounds.

Choice #2 is to pull back Kherson city, behind human shields, and wait for help from Putin.

The Izium Russians just ran or gave up.

23/ Could RuAF pull off a Dunkirk in Kherson?

Probably, they have boats and by foot over the Antonivskyi bridge seems to be possible.

Part of the 20k trapped Russians are professional soldiers. A strong motivated rear guard could hold the parameter long enough to get most out.

24/ Militarily evacuation is the right decision.

But Putin knows, that pics of thousands more abandoned vehicles, fleeing Russians, and jubilant citizens is something he just cannot survive.

This showdown could be happening right now between Putin and his General Staff.

25/ Kreminna is an important city.

There has been heavy fighting all week around Lyman. A bunch of RuAF could be getting stuck in a new pocket.

There has been a ZSU news blackout north east of the Oskil, but it is logical, they are in or near Svatove.

26/ There are a lot of "known unknows" at this point:

Is ZSU in Svatove, or moving there?

Is there a ZSU group in Vuhledar attacking south, or Marinka, or entirely fictitious?

Where are RuAf from Lyman, Izium & Kreminna?

What are the 25,000 Russians near Lysychansk doing.

27/ These continued Bonzai Attacks are the best evidence for a complete breakdown in RuAF C&C.

"Ukrainian military repelled RUAF attacks near Zaitseve, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Krasnohorivka, Vodiane, Bezimenne and Novohryhorivka, - General Staff ZSU"

facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

28/ Can Russia avoid abandoning all of northern Luhansk?

Probably not.

RuAf runs on rails. With reduced and degraded men and equipment they stand little chance of keeping the rail link from Valuyki - Starobilsk - Luhansk open.

The RuAf still near Kupiansk must be a rear guard.

29/ If this video represents what the fleeing Kharkiv Russians are doing, then they are now at deployment points in Luhansk City.

Tweet claims Russia wants to send them south to "DPR".

Lets hope these "LPR" "mobiks" have had enough, and will surrender.

30/ The "Putin Line", how and where?

The real problem is "what" the RuAF has left to form a line.

In north [green] ZSU has open country until to Aidar.

Why is RuAF defending Svatove and Troitsky?

Putin has political goals, not military, and could leave a bunch of RuAF trapped

31/ The Starobilsk rail link may soon be out of service.

What is left?

Donbas has three lines to supply that area, but is not connected to Mariupol.

Also Kherson (ferry) is not directly connected with Melitopol.

And ATACMS can disrupt even the long ways by hitting two bridges

32/ The operational pause after Kupiansk may be over.

If Lyman is the anvil, the hammer is north.

ZSU is at Tavilzhanka, only 40km to the Troitske railhead, where supply to Northern Luhansk can be cut.

And, at least 10k RuAF are west of Krasna River.

33/ If the RuAF has fled Yampil (Yampol in Russian), it could mean they are now pulling out of Lyman as well.

Earlier in the day, it was reported ZSU had broken through to Karpivka and Ridkodub, North of Drobysheve.

34/ Lyman is getting closer to encirclement. Blue circles have been reported as captured. This reports POWs taken in Maliivka.

35/ Two weeks ago Izium was cut off, the RuAF were killed or are POWs.

It is now groundhog day for Russia in Lyman and/or Svatove.

They had two weeks to organize some rational defense, but instead throw their lives away against the ZSU rocks of Avdiivka, Soledar and Bakhmut.