What does the experience of the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution suggest about the 2022 #IranRevolution? A few points in this thread. #MahsaAmini #مهسا_امينى
1) The Shah's regime did not fall overnight. The revolution played out from late 1977 to early 1979. There were many ups and downs and even periods of total calm, punctuated by mass protests. Don't expect the Islamic Republic to fall so quickly.
2) The single most important factor was the crisis of legitimacy that engulfed the Pahlavi monarchy. As I wrote back in June last year, Raisi's sham election was the Islamic Republic's 'Rastakhiz moment.' This was the turning point.
3) The groups that toppled the Shah were a coalition with leadership from outside the country: Khomeini in Paris. Don't discount the potential of exiled leaders like @PahlaviReza in a moment when there might soon be a leadership vacuum in Iran.
4) The role of strikes, especially strikes by Iranian civil servants and oil workers was paramount to crippling the Pahlavi state. This will be crucial if this uprising is to bring down the Islamic Republic.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…
5) The role of the Iranian armed forces will ultimately decide the outcome. With the Shah gone, the army 'melted like snow.' It is an open question if the IRGC will slaughter Iranians for Khamenei's successor, especially if it is his son Mojtaba.
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour…
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