Thread by @SteveBowenWx

Myself and a few @GallagherGlobal @GallagherRe_ colleagues spent October 4-7 in Florida analyzing damage from Hurricane #Ian. The following thread will cover some of our findings.

All photos sourced to Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx).

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The overall scope of damage in Southwest Florida is considerable, extensive, and will be extremely costly. It will take some communities years to recover. Among the devastation, however, emerged some positive results. More on that later.

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Peak observed winds were registered in Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers. We witnessed widespread roof damage, but primarily to older building stock that was not built to withstand 100+ mph winds. There was also a high volume of downed trees.

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Both residential and commercial structures with asphalt shingle or clay tile roofs >10 years old showed most failure. Old asphalt with poor installation or minimal "glue" did worst. Older clay tile, especially in Punta Gorda, showed notable distress.

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The newer building stock meeting Florida's current code requirements did exceptionally well, including in the highest wind areas along the coast from Port Charlotte to Naples. Highrise condominiums showed no obvious signs of notable wind damage or windborne-debris impacts.

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Mobile homes struggled from Ian. Newer construction with proper ground straps and limited open outdoor canopies did fine. Many older mobile homes were heavily damaged as winds found easy entry points and either fully or partially lifted roofs / canopies.

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Partial roof damage did combine with heavy rainfall to bring indoor content damage. Indoor moisture combined with days of Florida heat accelerated mold growth in many properties. Beyond the landfall point, this was seen in areas such as Englewood, North Port, and Bartow.

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The best performing roofs, regardless of age, were made of metal. Metal strip paneling showed excellent handling of peak winds across SW FL. Examples of metal roof failure was when soffits or garages were compromised and the winds or pressure pushed the metal panels "out".

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How about solar panels? Almost all of the new solar panel stock that was observed showed remarkable success. Solar panels on top of metal roofs did very well. Only in instances of downed trees did there appear to be obvious panel impacts.

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Wind Takeaways: This was similar to Irma (2017) in a high volume of minor damage seen across many counties, including inland beyond the coast. However, there was ample evidence of limited structural or complete roof failure -- especially in newer building stock.

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The most substantial damage was due to the breadth of storm surge impact. We recorded a peak height topping >15 feet behind a barrier island of the main Fort Myers Beach. It led to major damage in rows of homes behind those along the immediate coast. Many boats damaged.

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Due to ongoing recovery efforts on Fort Myers Beach, we were not able to inspect physical damage at the "first hit" areas where so many lives were lost. It is expected that water heights were even greater than 15 feet in some spots.

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While there was limited wind damage to coastal homes and condominiums in Fort Myers, Fort Myers Beach, Bonita Beach, and Naples, there was very damaging storm surge impacts to the first level of many properties. We measured storm surge coming 0.25 to 0.40 miles inland.

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We witnessed hundreds (or more) vehicles that were severely damaged or inundated along the coast. One particular stretch in Naples (Vanderbilt Beach) saw many luxury vehicles that were total losses. Most were flooded by the surge while parked in covered lots.

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Storm Surge Takeaways: You are always warned that water is the most deadly and destructive part of a tropical cyclone. Not wind. Ian lived up to that mantra. The scope of damage was even more expansive than anticipated, and covered a bigger area than Michael (2018).

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The torrential rain component of Ian brought considerable inland flash flooding and river overflow across the state. We observed ongoing major flooding in Arcadia along the Peace River. This was one full week after Ian made landfall.

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Similar flooding was noted in the Orlando metro area. We came across several examples of flooding along the St. John's River (Sanford) and Shingle Creek (Kissimmee), though more nearby communities were also hit hard by local river / creek / lake overflows.

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Inland Flood Takeaways: There was considerable flood damage from inland rainfall across Florida. Many of the hardest-hit counties have low National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up; guaranteeing that a large portion of these losses will be uninsured.

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Final Takeaways: It will be months (if not more than a year) until the financial toll of Ian settles. The direct economic toll in Florida and the Carolinas will almost certainly approach or surpass $100B. Insured losses will reach deep into the tens of billions ($).

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Florida's insurance market was already in a tough spot even prior to Ian. It will be a turbulent period ahead, and more carriers will likely go out of business. Premiums will go up. Claims litigation will be voluminous. Other states may feel the pain, such as Louisiana.

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We again saw clear evidence that building codes work. We need to subsidize lower income residents to gain access to this construction to retrofit their homes. We cannot rebuild the same way in the same places that Ian hit hardest. Tomorrow's climate is here today.

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