Thread by @maximananyev

A thread on conversations with “moderate-to-nationalist” Russian contacts.

By “moderate-to-nationalist” I mean those who consume Russian propaganda uncritically but have not yet blocked me on Whatsapp.

Because these are my contacts of 10+ years, I believe those attitudes are sincere.

But I cannot verify this.

I can be annoying, and people who are still talking to me who are not immediate family members are a self-selected bunch.

With these caveats:

The economy gradually takes its toll. Prices are rising, salaries are stagnant. Future seems uncertain.

I do not see a realisation that the harm is self-inflicted. It’s all about “sanctions”.

The West seems more prosperous but plagued with Russophobia.

Mobilisation has scared them. Somewhat. Nobody wants to fight, but they believe that only people with military experience are drafted.

It is my impression that despite all the reports about Russians fleeing, the modal reaction in Russia is staying put & hoping for the best.

Well-documented atrocities on occupied territories are dismissed as fakes.

Civilian casualties from missile attacks are rationalised as “minimal” collateral damage when targeting military infrastructure with high-precision weapons.

This is especially troubling because there is no information blockade in Russia. Yes, there is censorship on TV, but all info is available with minimal effort. Youtube is not blocked. Anyone can watch Katz, or Gordeeva, or FBK, or whatever.

All that Putin’s drivel about “parent #1” and “parent #2” resonated a lot. A LOT.

In general, American culture war stuff feels intensely personal for them. “They are kneeling in front of [Black people] in America!”.

Why a person who has never been to the US is so moved by the US culture wars is puzzling to me.

Anti-war protestors are not viewed as traitors. They are viewed as people who genuinely stand for what they believe however “mistaken” those beliefs might be.

My contacts also have friends & family in the West (but not in Ukraine) who are against the invasion and confronting them with facts & arguments more often than I do.

The most surprising bit. At least to me.

The strength of their conviction in the rightness of Russia’s cause is inversely proportion to the successes of Ukraine’s military. I see more doubts & hesitation when Russia is perceived as losing than when it's perceived is winning.

Information about Russia’s losses and about Russia losing territory are much more likely to trigger “are we the baddies?” reaction than photos from Bucha or Izyum.

I am not sure why this is so.

Once again – I have no idea how generalisable this is. My unverified hunch is that such attitudes are regrettably fairly common. But maybe not.

A silver lining is that a path to reckoning seems quite clear at this point.

P.S. According to my Twitter stats, to my complete surprise, 250K people saw this.

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