Thread by @e_u_gen

This is what Russian riot police looks like. Unlike the ragtag militia you've seen in the news, these internal troops are equipped to a very high standard.

But why? Why does Putin need them? And what does it have to do with Russian elections and gas exports?
/thread

Russia has a lot of Siloviki. According to 2018 report, the Ministry of Internal Affairs (the police) and National Guard alone amount to one million men. If we add all security services together, that's 2.6 million. One Silovik per 56 people.
proekt.media/research/zarpl…

That number is astonishingly high. As some Russians say, we have more cops than park benches. But why is that? Gang violence on the streets is a thing of the past. And if everyone supports Putin, why does he need that many guards? To answer this, we'll have to look at 2011-2013.

In 2011 Putin's party, United Russia, stole elections. Russian elections were probably always fraudilent, but nobody could say that for sure. But this time, due to a huge number of independent observers, the fraud was uncovered — and it was colossal.

This got Russians mighty angry. Huge protests rallies gathered all across the country, despite harsh cold Russian winter. This was the largest protest movement since USSR collapse.

Initially the protests were headed by Alexey Navalny and other prominent opposition figures, who mobilized electoral observers and uncovered the fraud in the first place. They were arrested, but the movement grew on its own, with more and more people joining it.

2011-2013 were key years in recent Russian history. It was THE moment to stop a new totalitarian state from being born. But the protest ultimately failed. Not because people decided to let Putin be, but because he cranked up police violence to 11.

In 2012 Putin used the same voter fraud to re-elect himself a third time, using a constitutional loophole. People got even madder. But this time Putin was prepared. The protest marches of 2012 were brutally shut down, with hundreds of injured and dozens imprisoned.

In subsequent years Putin's party pushed for new repressive measures against street protest. Despite Russian constitution guaranteeing right to assembly, protesting legally was made next to impossible. And the punishments became much more severe.

For example, under the new laws you couldn't just announce a rally or a picket. You had to get permission from the government. You had to ask a dictator to allow you to protest against him. Otherwise, police had full authority to shut you down — which is what they did, of course.

In 2013 the protests ran out of steam. People were tired of police violence and a lot of the brightest and most socially active citizens got completely disillusioned. Instead of a bright new Russia, they were lead back to USSR. A lot of Russians left the country.

Then, after 2014, the fate of the country was sealed. All hardline Putin critics were purged from the parliament. All the federal media were subjected to Putin's office. He also cracked down on social media, exiling Pavel Durov.

The deck was stacked against the Free Russians. With crooked and well-armed police, crooked parliament, crooked media and draconian laws, the chance of success was vanishingly small.

Oleg Navalny was put to jail as a revenge for his brother's criticism of Putin. Sergei Udaltsov, who led the protests from the far left side, was also imprisoned. In 2015 Boris Nemtsov, the leader of anti-war movement, was assassinated next to the Kremlin.

Many refused to believe the cause is lost. Navalny most of all. He kept fighting and by 2020 he got a wide recognition both in Russia and abroad. But when people went on protest against his unlawful imprisonment, they were crushed by a vastly superior police force.

Why did this happen? Well, because Russia is run by a security officer, obviously. But also because Russia is a Petrostate. When the state has a virtually limitless supply of money from selling oil&gas, it's much easier to establish a dictatorship.

You see, in developed nations the citizens themselves are THE source of income. They create profitable businesses, pay taxes and finance the government. This, above anything else, keeps the government accountable. If the people get poor and desperate, so will your budget.

Petrostates are different. They earn money by exploiting (stealing from people) natural resources and selling them abroad. Petrostates don't care how poor and desperate their citizens get, since they get their money from oil and gas. You can ignore the people and still be fine.

Petrostates also have an incredible capacity for corruption. In a developed nation, corruption undermines the budget and slows the economic growth. In Petrostates corruption does the same. But the government can just ignore it (or even promote it), because it has easy money.

You do whatever you want. Your oligarchs can steal as much as they want. The people will get as poor as they can be. And the pipe pays for everything. As long as you have oil and gas, you can always afford both luxuries and a huge, well-armed security and armed forces.

This gets me to another point I often make. The pipe enabled Putin to stay in power for so long. The pipe paid for every military and security expense, despite Russian economy tanking and Russians getting increasingly poor. Putin is Putin, because he has the pipe.

One way of stopping him was to cut oil and gas sales. 2008, when he invaded and occupied Georgia, was the perfect time to ban Russian gas and oil in Europe, removing every possibility of a new dictatorship and a new full-scale war. And I'm still salty because it wasn't done.

I'm salty, because EU keeps paying Putin for his resources (which he stole from us). Keeps giving him more easy money, which was used, is used and will be used to repress Russians and oppress neighboring nations. And I see no reason why, other than greed or unforgivable stupidity

If you're looking for a more visceral experience of police state, check the thread under this link. Russia puts Orwell to shame.

@BotTheFlag analyze tweet