Thread by @ericwhiteback

🚨 UPDATE 🚨

There is something incredibly fishy going on with @backyardbreaks_ pulling multiple product hits out of @PaniniAmerica’s top products.

The statistical improbabilities are absurd.

Here’s a deep-dive on all the data.

It’s a must read. 👇

Backyard pulled so many “product hits” out of Panini’s top sets, that it seemed impossible to have happened by chance.

Many have speculated that someone has been giving Backyard “loaded boxes.” If this were indeed happening, it would be fraud, and mathematically “provable.”

I’ll be using the following 4 cards for my analysis:

- Flawless LeBron Triple Logoman
- Flawless Warriors Triple Logoman
- Prizm Cade Black 1/1
- NT Cade Logoman 1/1

I’ve selected these four cards as they are undisputed product hits.

First, we need to calculate the number of boxes that Panini produced for Flawless, National Treasures (NT), and Prizm FOTL.

Here’s the results…
Flawless: 4,230 Boxes
NT: 19,130 Boxes
Prizm FOTL: 7,590

(Math shown below 👇)

Because Backyard has not answered DM’s (while interacting on my posts), I am missing one critical datapoint: how much product has Backyard opened?

So instead, I will solve for how much product they would have needed to open to have a reasonable (p > .005) chance at all 4 cards.

So to have even a .5% chance at hitting these 4 cards, Backyard would have had to have opened 26.59% of all product.

Using the production data from above, that means they would have had to open:

1,125 Flawless Boxes
5,132 NT Boxes
2,018 Prizm FOTL Boxes

And this is where things get really wonky. Let’s look at how much money that would cost.

Flawless ≈ $10k/box
NT ≈ $5k/box
Prizm FOTL ≈ $1.6k/box

So in total, Backyard would have to have ripped $40,138,800 worth of these three products alone.

Let me repeat that.

Backyard would have had to rip $40,138,800 worth of these three products to have even a .5% chance to hit these four cards.

And if the *actual* amount of wax opened is much less than the $40.1M, the math looks significantly more bleak. Well…

About the *actual* amount of wax…an anonymous source confirmed that Backyard opens ~12 boxes of NT daily.

Today marks 86 days since NT’s July 20 release.

This means, Backyard has opened somewhere around 1,032 boxes. This represents just under 5.4% of the total production.

We can reasonably assume that this 5.4% figure is somewhat representative of how much product they are opening. And now the numbers get crazy…

While opening 5.4% of all 3 products, Backyard would have a .00085% chance to hit all 4 cards.

That’s equivalent to 1:117,605.

In conclusion, 1 of 3 things MUST be true.

1. Backyard opened $40M+ of these products AND got 1:200 lucky.

2. Backyard opened less than $40M of these products, but got absurdly lucky (≈ 1:117,605).

3. Someone is giving Backyard loaded boxes.

You tell me which is most likely.

So now what?

1. @PaniniAmerica must launch an immediate 3rd party investigation into this. Anything less is unacceptable.

2. Anyone who knows anything, please speak up. My DM’s are open and you have full anonymity.

Everyone deserves a fair chance at these cards.