Thread by @ncdave4life

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 1/9》The Battery did see slight sea-level rise acceleration in the late 1800s. None in the last 100 years:
sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…

trend = 3.264 ±0.161 mm/yr (13 inches/century)

acceleration = 0.00410 ±0.01244 mm/yr² (zero)

(Acceleration is calculated by quadratic regression.)

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 2/9》Calculation of confidence intervals and prediction intervals for monthly Mean Sea-Level (MSL) is complicated by serial autocorrelation. That means each month's MSL is correlated, to an extent which varies by location, with the MSL measurements of the previous & next months.

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 3/9》That means there are effectively fewer independent measurements, which would cause a naive confidence interval calculation to underestimate the breadth of the intervals. There's no need for detrending, but CI & PI calculations do require taking autocorrelation into account.

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 4/9》When calculating CIs & PIs, my sealevel.info code follows the method of Zervas 2009, "Sea Level Variations of the United States 1854-2006," NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 053, p. 15-24, to account for autocorrelation. You may read it here:
sealevel.info/Tech_rpt_53.pd…

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 5/9》As for Tamino (Grant Foster), he is a serial disinformer, and his incompetent yet strenuous efforts to torture sea-level data into confessing "acceleration" are the worst sort of junk science.

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 6/9》Unless you like be misled, I suggest that you avoid Tamino's blog.

Here are some much better choices. It's a list of some of the best blogs on BOTH sides of the climate debate -- blogs which are NOT censored to prevent dissent:

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 7/9》I think this 2019 comment (which Tamino/Foster deleted) was my last attempt to post anything on Tamino's blog, about climate, weather or sea-level:
sealevel.info/tamino_sea-lev…

@AtomsksSanakan @Faktantarkast10 @smarzeli @ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist @paraga 8/9》BTW, @AtomsksSanakan, I blocked you >2.5 years ago, for rudeness. I unblocked you Friday you so you could see the Ijmuiden, Netherlands analysis, which you'd asked FactChecker @Faktantarkast10 about:

sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…
Acceleration since 1900 = -0.00760 ±0.00975 mm/yr²