Thread by @kamilkazani

I don't see any indication that China would see the Russian Far East as a preferable direction of expansion. What I see is the wishful thinking of too many US journalists/analysts who would love to see Moscow and Being clashing over Siberia. I think that's highly improbable

Russia is shrinking. And it is shrinking southwestward. Sunbelt around Krasnodar is the fastest growing region in Russia, while much of the Far East is turning into the empty desert. Economic and demographic centres of Russia are shifting to Europe, towards the Black Sea

War with Ukraine makes total sense

War with Turkey makes total sense

War with China makes no sense

Russia is shifting to the southwest. The East is turning to desert that Moscow won't fight over. It's Moscow that tries to attract Beijing to Siberia, while Beijing hesitates

I know many would like to clash Moscow and Beijing 1905-style. I don't think it'll happen. In 1905 Russia was young rapidly growing country with an average age of around 17 y.o. Of course it was expanding east. Now it is old, dying, shrinking country. And it's shrinking westward

Russia is depopulating. But *some* parts of it are growing quickly. Agglomerations of St Petersburg, Moscow, Krasnodar attract almost all internal migrants. Ergo, most natural directions of expansion are:

1) Baltic Sea
2) Black Sea

Should Russia exit, it will be expanding here

PS Unless the US makes absolutely clear it won't defend the Baltic countries and Finland, my bet would be - Black Sea