Thread by @hilldanr

#IEA Mineral demand 4 clean energy technologies quadruple by 2050 (APS & NZE Scenario). Annual revenues $400B.

High/volatile #criticalmineral prices & concentrated supply delay transition/make costly.

Requires scale up, diversify supplies, recycling, moderate demand growth.

Developing new deposits of critical minerals has historically taken over 16 years on average, with 12 years spent lining up all aspects of permitting and financing and 4‐5 years for construction.

Demand for CMs set to more than double by 2030 in the APS. Copper largest increase in terms of absolute volumes, but other critical minerals experience much faster rates of demand growth, notably silicon and silver for solar PV, REE for wind & lithium for batteries.

Recycling is an important and – for the moment – underutilised option to reduce critical
minerals demand: 95% of solar panel components by mass are recyclable, and the
percentage for wind turbines is similar.

Accelerating clean energy transitions requires large increases in the global manufacturing
capacity of clean energy technologies and in related inputs such as critical minerals.

None of the clean energy technologies
or critical minerals shown in Figure 1.25 currently have an announced supply capacity
sufficient to meet the massive ramp‐up needed in the NZE Scenario by 2030, although
batteries and solar PV get close

There is a risk that the increasing use and importance of critical minerals could become a bottleneck for clean energy deployment.

None of the clean energy technologies or critical minerals shown in Figure 1.25 currently have an announced supply capacity sufficient to meet the massive ramp‐up needed in the NZE Scenario by 2030, although batteries and solar PV get close

We do not yet model the supply‐demand balances or price trajectories for critical minerals in the same way as for fuels, and take the 2021 average prices as a baseline assumption for the calculation of future revenues.

While battery production factories can be built in under 2yr, raw material extraction requires investment long before production reaches scale. Investments in new mines will need to increase quickly and significantly if supply is to keep up with the rapid pace of demand growth

technology improvements in solar mitigate growth in mineral demand.

Coal miners, particularly those in modern, mechanised mining operations, may have skills that would be useful in critical minerals production, although the scope for this transition may be limited by the relatively smaller volumes of minerals needed and by the different locations

In the APS, demand for critical minerals for clean energy technologies is 2.5x higher by 2030 and quadruples by 2050 (Figure 4.17). In the NZE Scenario, an even faster deployment of clean energy technologies implies 4x higher demand for critical minerals in 2030 & 2050 than today

Critical minerals extraction is geographically concentrated, with a single country accounting for over half of global production of several key minerals

there are also significant risks associated with the environmental, social and governance (ESG) impacts of mining projects.

At just over 5 000 kg/MW, nuclear power is the least critical mineral‐intensive technology among the suite of low‐emissions power generation technologies (IEA, 2021b).

More copper for grids, rare earth elements for wind turbine motors, silicon for solar panels and lithium for battery storage are required to transition to low-emissions power systems

Enhanced R&D efforts could help commercialise technologies that provide substitutes for certain critical minerals or reduce the amount of minerals required per unit of power

@tae100 you and the team at IEA do great work 🎩📴2⃣🫵

@ir_ramdoo Yes Isabelle! I knew you'd like this data/modelling excerpt 🤓