Let’s ignore the moral aspects of “UA needs to make territorial concessions to RU to avoid nuclear apocalypse and stop the war” and just look at RU's track record of nuclear blackmail.
1999: Russia (not Putin) starts the 2nd Chechen war. The US condemns. Russia screams “nukes!”
Meh, Okay, let’s continue business as usual. Why make a fuss about that obscure land, not worth nuclear war, right? Russia says they are all terrorists there anyway.
2008: Russia invades Georgia. The neighbours, Ukraine included, are worried and want to up their defense, but:
Well, let’s ignore the fact that 20% of Georgia is now occupied, Russia is a more valuable international player, right? And they surely won’t invade Ukraine if UA doesn’t join NATO, right?
2014: Russia invades Ukraine and screams, “nukes!” Aw, shit, who could’ve seen it coming?
You know what? Ukraine...Ukulele...Whatever, we are too tired to figure out who are those green men in Crimea and where the “rebels” in Donbas got the equipment to shoot down the MH17.
Let’s don’t upset Russia and buy more gas from them. Oh, oh, and let’s build another pipe!
In any case, Russia has a track record of being an absolutely lovely, non-threatening at all country. A reliable player. What can possibly go wrong? After all, they are very cultured and have Bolshoi Ballet and stuff. Oh, and did I say already they also have nukes? So mighty😊
2022: What do you mean, Russia invaded Ukraine? It already invaded Ukraine before, and we didn’t impose on them sanctions strict enough. They could even find loopholes and build the bridge to the occupied Crimea using foreign equipment. Why didn’t appeasement work? 😭
OK, but you know what? Now Russia will for sure respect the treaties if we give them that other chunk of Ukraine. I mean, they are well known for respecting treaties. Right? Right??!🥲
And what happens when Russia's threats are ignored? Well, let's look at the most recent case.
First, they issue vague threats and shout at the sky
When nobody takes Russia seriously, they begin to run around and swing their nukes
And when Russia's nuclear threats don't impress anyone, they say, "Yeah, whatever," and get back to vague threats.
Such cycles might continue forever.
Or until Russia is denuclearised.
to keep things accurate, I got a fair remark about the article above being pre-invasion of Georgia. I'm now also adding here a couple of articles from August 2008, showing how Russia was also threatening Poland that year 1/
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Links to the listed above articles (and some extras) on Russia's nukes threats:
1999:
[a] theguardian.com/world/1999/dec…
[b] theguardian.com/world/1999/apr…
2008: [a] theguardian.com/world/2008/feb…
[b] edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/eur…
[c] theguardian.com/world/2008/aug…
2014 - thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia…
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More links to the listed above articles on Russia's nukes threats (+ extra):
2015 - independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
2018: [a] - apnews.com/article/moscow…
[b] - cnbc.com/2018/12/20/put…
2021 - reuters.com/world/russia-s…
2022 - theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…
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