Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for 5 November, kindly brought to you by Janat: @Janat_H1
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Battlefield Update
A series of unsuccessful RU attacks in various locations. The front line shows only small, tactical-level changes.
🔥 Svatove-Kreminna
UA has fire control over the Svatove-Kreminna road. The enemy failed to push UA out of those positions.
🔥 Soledar
Unsuccessful RU attempts to break through on Soledar, where RU now focuses its main efforts after losing ground in Bakhmut.
🔥 Pavlivka - Vuhledar
Failed RU attack with heavy losses thanks to UA artillery.
🔥 Kherson
UA artillery continues to deliver precise strikes on enemy positions.
🔥 Mobilization
Data on Russian mobilized: 238K drafted instead of the announced 300K.
Due to the regular autumn conscription that just began, military enlistment offices cannot cope with increased demand for their limited supplies of clothes, food, accommodations, weapons, and military equipment.
RU failed to draft a million troops under the guise of 300 thousand. Mobilization is unlikely to become a strategic factor in this war. Of 230K mobilized, 43% are receiving training and being equipped; others are sitting idle in gyms, schools, and other temporary accommodations.
In the theater of war (UA, Belarus, RU border regions), there are 65-85 thousand mobilized, and 50-65K are in UA proper.
Calculations are complicated by too many categories: draftees by enlisting offices, prisoners, “volunteers” who are basically professional military who cannot discontinue their contract, conscripts forced to sign contracts, etc.
🔥 Iran
Iran admitted drone deliveries to RU prior to the war. According to Arestovych, Iran is going through the stages of anger, denial, and now bargaining. Extensive cumulative evidence from various governments pressured Iran to admit, but only deliveries before Feb 24.
Admitting Iran’s supply of weapons during the conflict violates its neutrality; it will change its international status. Iran may lose its European allies interested in buying Iranian oil and gas.
Anticipated further statements from Iran: we did not give RU the right to use our weapons in Ukraine.
What could Russia give Iran in exchange for drones?
Arestovych quotes Podolyak (adviser to the Head of the Office of the Pres of UA) who calls for a different approach from the West and Middle East to address the threat from Iran if RU is helping Iran with its nuclear program.
🔥 Starlink
According to CNN, 1.3 thousand Starlink terminals out of 25K in UA are disabled. Arestovych confirmed that some terminals are disconnected for reasons that cannot be disclosed (not due to financial reasons as stated by CNN).
🔥 Undefeated HIMARS
The RU army has not destroyed a single HIMARS in Ukraine.
Several reasons for their invincibility: high mobility, difficult terrain (forests, gullies, capital structures), colossal losses among RU special forces who could do reconnaissance; RU aviation flies about 20km into the UA territory while HIMARS can strike with long-range…
…missiles.
Also, UA succeeds in coordination efforts and distraction operations. For the first two months, UA used HIMARS only at night. Now they use them during the daytime as well.
🔥 China and RU nuclear threat
Current European-Chinese relations created negative dynamics for Moscow on the eve of the G20 summit: the nuclear threat from the RF is statistically very low.
When RU began to target UA civil infrastructure, they gave up the option to use nuclear weapons.
These are two different strategies. A nuclear weapon is an instant escalation leading to an uncontrollable situation and war with NATO. Destruction of infrastructure is a prolonged manageable strategy to win time: freezing UA and Europe, waiting on US elections, etc.
Still, if this statistically unlikely event takes place, Putin has been warned by the West of the catastrophic consequences for him personally. China and India stated their clear position about how disastrously bad this decision would be for Russia.
China is Putin’s last hope to sell his energy carriers as the Russian oil embargo comes into effect on December 5 and Great Britain bans services to transport and ensure RU oil.
🔥 Riots in Russia
There were 3 riots among the mobilized; the latest was in Kazan where 2000 recruits threatened the commanding officer. Their main complaints were lack of food, water, and firewood; rusty machine guns; no laundry facilities. Due to the housing shortage, new recruits live in tents.
If only 43% of the mobilized are in the theater of war, then 57% are in a similar situation. Large concentrations of idle men living in inhumane conditions will produce angry mobs attacking anything and everyone.
Eventually, the rage of the fuming mobilized will be directed at Putin who broke the social contract and delegitimized his regime with mobilization.
The next stream is on November 7.
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