Thread by @ncdave4life

@NolanCarlton2 @fischerfischy @Devonian1342 @CarrudoDon @Anvndarnamn5 @Michael_D_Crow @AristotleMrs @BenKoby1911 @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Climatehope2 @Mark_A_Lunn @S_D_Mannix @Veritatem2021 @Data79504085 @Jaisans @Hji45519156 @Ceist8 @glinch72 @waxliberty @priscian @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @Willard1951 @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @EthonRaptor @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @ItsTheAtmospher 1/6》 It has no hope of working unless the system is accurately modeled. That obviously is not the case for GCMs.

That it isn't the case is proven by the fact that GCMs vary enormously in their assumptions about even the most basic climate parameters!
sealevel.info/AR5_Table_9.5_…

@NolanCarlton2 @fischerfischy @Devonian1342 @CarrudoDon @Anvndarnamn5 @Michael_D_Crow @AristotleMrs @BenKoby1911 @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Climatehope2 @Mark_A_Lunn @S_D_Mannix @Veritatem2021 @Data79504085 @Jaisans @Hji45519156 @Ceist8 @glinch72 @waxliberty @priscian @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @Willard1951 @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @EthonRaptor @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @ItsTheAtmospher 2/6》 That's AR5 Table 9.5. Notice the wildly different assumptions about how Earth's climate system works, in various GCMs.
Imagine an engineer relying on calculated structure performance if the strength of the material to be used was only guessed to ±40%
google.com/search?q=2.6%2…

@NolanCarlton2 @fischerfischy @Devonian1342 @CarrudoDon @Anvndarnamn5 @Michael_D_Crow @AristotleMrs @BenKoby1911 @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Climatehope2 @Mark_A_Lunn @S_D_Mannix @Veritatem2021 @Data79504085 @Jaisans @Hji45519156 @Ceist8 @glinch72 @waxliberty @priscian @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @Willard1951 @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @EthonRaptor @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @ItsTheAtmospher 3/6》 Can you imagine any competent engineer picking a value at random from that huge range, doing calculations using ONLY that value, and making his design or releasing a research paper based on that one set of calculations?
Would YOU drive on his bridge?

@NolanCarlton2 @fischerfischy @Devonian1342 @CarrudoDon @Anvndarnamn5 @Michael_D_Crow @AristotleMrs @BenKoby1911 @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Climatehope2 @Mark_A_Lunn @S_D_Mannix @Veritatem2021 @Data79504085 @Jaisans @Hji45519156 @Ceist8 @glinch72 @waxliberty @priscian @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @Willard1951 @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @EthonRaptor @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @ItsTheAtmospher 4/6》 That's EXACTLY what Lacis, Schmidt et al did for their "Principal Control Knob" paper. They used GISS ModelE because it was handy. They called the model runs "experiments," and published a paper declaring definitive results based on them.
(That's common in Climate Science.)

@NolanCarlton2 @fischerfischy @Devonian1342 @CarrudoDon @Anvndarnamn5 @Michael_D_Crow @AristotleMrs @BenKoby1911 @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Climatehope2 @Mark_A_Lunn @S_D_Mannix @Veritatem2021 @Data79504085 @Jaisans @Hji45519156 @Ceist8 @glinch72 @waxliberty @priscian @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @Willard1951 @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @EthonRaptor @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 @ItsTheAtmospher 5/6》 Such behavior by an engineer would put his professional licensure at risk, and expose his firm to malpractice lawsuits.

But Lacis, Schmidt et al got their sorry paper published in Science Magazine @ScienceMagazine, to general acclaim by their peers.