@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 Wrong. Current energy imbalance is unlikely to be more than about 0.3 W/m².
1 W/m² would mean that about 40% of the long term warming effect of all GHGs emitted to date remains unrealized, which is obviously absurd.
sealevel.info/radiative_imba…
@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 2/7》Do you have any idea what the ECS/TCR ratio would have to be for 40% of the long term warming effect of all GHGs emitted to date remain unrealized?
I know you don't. You NEVER try to reconcile your contradictory beliefs, Willard. That's one of the reasons you're so confused.
@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 3/7》You know that TCR is shorter-term than reality-to-date, because its modeled 1%/year CO2 growth rate is much faster than reality.
Conversely, ECS is longer-term than reality-to date.
Realized warming is probably about halfway between TCR & ECS.
You probably know all that.
@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 4/7》AR6 says, "The total anthropogenic ERF over the Industrial Era is 2.3 (1.1 to 3.3) W/m²"
ipcc.ch/site/assets/up…
A typical estimate is ECS/TCR = 1.5 (though that's probably too high).
You probably know that, too. Right?
@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 5/7》If realized warming is halfway between TCR & ECS, then unrealized warming is equal to (ECS-TCR)/2, obviously.
So if ECS/TCR = 1.5 then about 1/6 of ECS is still unrealized, and 5/6 is already realized.
Is that all clear, so far?
@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 6/7》Assuming warming effect of RF is roughly linear, then that same ratio tells us how much of anthropogenic radiative forcing remains "in the pipe," as radiative imbalance.
So 1/6 unrealized warming means radiative imbalance = 1/6 of total anthropogenic ERF.
Is that clear?
@Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @EthonRaptor @NolanCarlton2 @JusticeTrudeau @Climatehope2 @BenKoby1911 @S_D_Mannix @CarrudoDon @priscian @Ceist8 @AristotleMrs @Jaisans @Anvndarnamn5 @fischerfischy @Michael_D_Crow @DenisDaly @Joeyd87745119 @Mark_A_Lunn @Devonian1342 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @glinch72 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JimBowersclimb @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @SniemN @BointonGiles @ammocrypta @SeekerTheGreat1 @ubique60 @CDMarshall7 @RMcgillss @paligap17 @TheDisproof @MaggieL @Willy1000 @AuroriaTwittori @3GHtweets @RushhourP @MartinJBern @gstrandberg1 7/7》So if radiative imbalance were 1 W/m² that would mean total anthropogenic ERF is six times that, i.e. 6 W/m².
But AR6 says it's only "2.3 (1.1 to 3.3) W/m²".
Now do you see the problem with those crazy-high radiative imbalance estimates?
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.