Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 07 December 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: ow.ly/Cj6K50LX6NZ
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦
(1/6) Russia has recently started extending defensive positions along its international border with Ukraine, and deep inside its Belgorod region. On 6 December 2022, the governor of Belgorod announced he was establishing local ‘self-defence units’.
(2/6) Trench digging has been reported in Belgorod since at least April 2022, but the new constructions are probably more elaborate systems, designed to rebuff mechanised assault.
(3/6) There is a realistic possibility that the Russian authorities are promoting defensive preparations within internationally recognised Russian territory to burnish patriotic feeling.
(4/6) However, it probably illustrates some Russia decision-makers’ genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces.
(5/6) Paucity in strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses in the central Russian government architecture: as highlighted by Russia’s original decision to invade Ukraine.
(6/6) Impartial official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions.
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