It is also convenient to talk about personal guilt, it just won’t get you anywhere. I know many Ukrainians will hate to hear this, but I don’t think this war will end with any sort of moral catharsis at all. Meanwhile much of Ukrainian discourse seems to be catharsis-oriented
Consider the “reparations”. This idea is not completely unrealistic. Ukraine may have a chance to use some of the Russian gov/oligarch assets abroad for post-war reconstruction. Should Russia collapse, Ukrainians may also have a chance to enter Russia and take what they want
But that’s not what is being proposed (for the most part). For the most part ppl seem to imagine reparations as Russia paying trillions bazillions dollars *over a long period* to pay for the harm it inflicted. I think this plan is madness and potentially suicidal madness
Why? First, this plan requires large, centralised and highly functional political structure to work out. Once you invest into the “reparations” idea, you will start accepting the idea of strong and functional Russian empire. There will be no way around it, realistically speaking
Second problem is *over the long time* frame. If you plan to collect bazillions over the long time, it means you never gonna collect them. Because a lot of stuff can and will happen over the long time. There will be plenty of Black Swans that will allow to stop paying anything
Once again, people may hate to hear that, but should the reparation plan with a time frame of let’s say 50 (for example) years be accepted, you must realistically expect that in a few years Russia will reduce payments dramatically. And then stop them at all
Should Russia lose, Ukraine may have a short window of opportunity to do well, everything. The key word - *short*. Once this window of opportunity fades away, there will be not much you can realistically do. You may not be even able to make Russia follow whatever you forced it…
To sign. So whatever commitments you forced Moscow to sign would just turn into dust. And this may happen fast, much faster than one could expect. I’d give 5-10 years max, but most probably it will happen sooner
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