Dollar Tweet Storm: Ok Im a dollar bull, not just a bull but like the dollar is going to rip your face off, throw it on the ground and stamp all over it and then punch you in the kidney sort of, Dollar Bull, so probably ¼ Bullish what @SantiagoAuFund is 😉 So let’s get to it. $DX
2/21: While I am a bull and just started getting long again last week after closing the last of my Long position in early September around 108, Im "not 100% sure" the “final” bottom is forthcoming so in the interim it will act as a hedge against other Risk Assets, if it isnt.
3/21: My Base Case is a dollar low in the next 10 days, a nice tradable rally and then new lows with the final low being made some months in the future. Of course all this could change depending on what Powell does so I will base this on his general overall goal as of today
4/21: The rest will be mostly charts with notes.
Short Term: Several Demark Signals are in play and should trigger in the next 10 days. Current Counts in the chart
5/21: Past performance triggers for D9 and D13 on Daily Timeframe
6/21: Close to butting up against the downward channel
7/21: Seasonality is getting close to turning positive for the greenback.
8/21: The Weekly Demark which I think is the best of the bunch is in the zone but awaiting the flip up.
Downside Volume is drying up.
9/21:All of these have created a sweet spot for the dollar to at least run a few people over. Now its certainly possible with all these factors that we could go back to ATH and this is why I started adding again BUT, as I said my base case is still one more low. Lets see why
10/21: First I dont think Commercials are where they need to be to really propel it higher right now. They need to get closer to net long imo as with every other major bottom. This could happen very quickly but just not there... yet...
11/21: Sentiment Data is also not where it needs to be, yet. At least not where it needs to be for a major run but it will... Just think punch in the kidney when it does. It will wake you up. #Dollar #dollarmoon
12/21: Way too much Call buying for my liking. While crowded option trades arent always wrong, its just that they usually are, that makes me think we need to run them over and get the shorts all giddy, then we can feel better about running them over.😉
13/21: More
14/21: High Short Intensity of Put Buying creates the short squeeze you need to start a new bull phase.
15/21: The US / Emerging Market Spread: This triggered a SELL in the USD in October. Quite a nice sell it was but create a BUY in the USD the spread needs to blow out more. We are still a ways a way. Every Major move in the USD started with the spread a 28. We are at 14
16/21: Fibonacci. Im not big into Fibonacci but I will look at the MAJOR Retracement levels. First look at this. The long term Chart of the USD Bearish Retracement... Funny look what happened in October🤔🤔
17/21: The above was impressive enough to me to suggest these Numbers have some value. So let's look at the Bullish Retracement Levels. There are 38% and 50% swing high and low clusters right at the same implied projection of the USD/EEM Spread. 🤔🤔💪💪💰💰 or... 🙏🙏😉
18/21: Breadth Bust / Breadth Bust Model has hit week 14 which now can create the Breadth Bust. This is historically the 1st step to prepping for the Major Bull Run. See attached for more info.
19/21:The Demark Wk 13 is at least 12 wks away from triggering which puts us to the May time frame which is also the top month for forming major tops & bottoms. 66% of all major T's & B's were in Jan,Mar,May & Jul. Let me sneak in that seasonal chart again SEE Early May&Late Jul
20/21: Here is the S&P Outlier. I will be honest I didnt expect Friday's intraday melt up. If they breakout above this, they dynamic of the USD and S&P will be interesting to see how it plays out to see who wins the game of chicken or better said, who rips who's face off.... 💪💪
That's all I got kids. Let's see how this plays out. Hope this gave you something positive to ponder or at least you can make fun of me if Im wrong so its a win/win. I also want to thank Brent @SantiagoAuFund for making me see this years ago. He has this nailed dont fight this😀
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