Thread by @jrf_uk

💬 Welcome to JRF’s #AskAnAnalyst Q&A session 💬

Our analysts will be answering your questions on our #UKPoverty2023 report.

You can read the report in full, here: jrf.org.uk/report/uk-pove…

First question received from a webinar attendee last week: "How will the uprating of benefits and increase in the benefit cap levels from April impact poverty rates?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or: The UC uplift in the pandemic appears to have helped to reduce poverty, so state support does help. But benefits are at a historic low, LHA remains frozen and increasing by inflation simply maintains the current low rates. Many families on benefits will struggle.

Question from @fi_redress:

.@isabe1_tay1or answers: Politicians at national and local levels have policy levers they can use to address poverty but we also need to examine the building blocks of social and economic systems so they work for poorer households.

Q: "Do you have any evidence on how families just above the threshold for support through the benefits system are faring?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@isabe1_tay1or: In Oct. 2022, 7 in 10 low-income working-age households not receiving benefits were going without an essential & over half were in arrears. This was less severe than for those receiving benefits but still v.high
More here: jrf.org.uk/report/low-inc… @KatieSchmuecker

Q: "Which demographics are most at risk of falling into poverty as a result of the cost of living crisis?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@CarlaOnion answers: In our Cost of Living Tracker we found that young people, people from minority ethnic backgrounds and disabled people are all at a greater risk, you can read more here: jrf.org.uk/report/going-u…

Q: "Can you signpost to evidence on the incidence and nature of credit used by low-income families affected by the cost of living crisis?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@J_Elliott94 answers: our cost of living work led by @r_earwaker explores this question.

The latest report finds 2.8m low-income households have a high cost credit loan, 2.4m have taken on borrowing or use credit to pay for essentials.

Read more ⬇️
jrf.org.uk/report/going-u…

Q: "Can you explain the deep and very deep poverty measures? Should policy focus more on the very deep poverty measure than the 60% of median measure?" #AskAnAnalyst

@CarlaOnion answers: Policy needs to consider the impact on both so that people in deep poverty are not left behind.
Deep poverty= 50% of median income
Very deep poverty = 40%
You can read more about deep poverty and our policy recommendations here: jrf.org.uk/report/going-w…

Q: "What are the poverty rates for unpaid carers, and can you say more about the work JRF has done on this group?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@jrfAleks answers: our analysis finds poverty rates are much higher for informal carers (at 29% v. 20%). More detail in page 68 of the report.

Read about our work with unpaid carers in a blog on the work by @rachel_casey85, @LUSACTION and others here:

jrf.org.uk/blog/unpaid-ca…

@jrfAleks @rachel_casey85 @LUSACTION Q: "I receive PIP. Are poverty rates higher for disabled people because they need to pay more for costs related to their disability and care?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@CarlaOnion answers: When calculating poverty rates for disabled people we remove disability benefits intended to cover additional costs from the total household income to factor in extra costs, but even without doing that poverty rates are higher for disabled families.

@CarlaOnion Q: "Can you provide breakdowns of poverty rates for minority ethnic groups?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@isabe1_tay1or answers: In 2018/19-2020/21, poverty rates were highest for people from the Bangladeshi (51%), Pakistani (44%) and Black ethnic groups (42%). These were over twice as high as for people from white ethnic groups (19%). They also had much higher deep poverty rates.

@isabe1_tay1or Q: "Is the higher poverty rate for ethnic minority families partly explained by their typically younger-age profile, where poverty is higher among younger people?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or .@isabe1_tay1or answers: Age profiles may play a part in this, but even when looking at poverty rates for children, working-age adults and pensioners separately, we see similar differences in poverty rates between people from ethnic minority groups and from white ethnic groups.

@isabe1_tay1or Q: "Have you looked at poverty by immigration status, including those not allowed to work and / or access public funds?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or .@J_Elliott94 answers: a lack of data meant we couldn't do this for UK Poverty unfortunately.

Our Structural Racism in Housing report by @KhemRogaly includes analysis of the disproportionate challenges and pressures faced by those likely exposed to NRPF

jrf.org.uk/report/whats-c…

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly Q: "Do you have any evidence on pregnant women and new mothers? Particularly those excluded from mainstream benefits by their immigration system?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly .@jrfAleks answers: This is something we've explored in depth with @LittleVillageHQ - we've linked to their report. Unfortunately due to data limitations we weren't able to break this down by immigration status.

littlevillagehq.org/news/over-one-…

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ Q: "How do you calculate child poverty rates, does it not make more sense to focus on the parents?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ .@CarlaOnion answers: Poverty is based on the household (HH) income, so if 2 children are in a HH in poverty then those children are in poverty. HHs of different sizes require different incomes. Policy should target parents and ways to increase their income and lower their costs.

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion Q: "Do you have breakdowns for poverty rates for people aged 18-24? Particularly those who are heads of households?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion .@J_Elliott94 answers: breakdowns of poverty rates by age-group are published on page 20 of the report. We don't include specific breakdowns for young people who are heads of households, but could look to do this in future.

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion Q: "Are lone parents particularly at risk?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion .@isabe1_tay1or answers: Yes, poverty rates are highest in lone-parent families - 38% of working-age lone parents were in poverty in 2020/21. They are also more likely to be in persistent poverty (31% compared to 13% of working-age parents in couple families in 2017-2020).

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion Q: "Can you say more about the disproportionate risks of and impact of poverty on women?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @isabe1_tay1or answers: Women are over-represented in many groups more likely to be in poverty, including lone-parents and carers. Poverty rates are also higher among pension-age women than men, likely due in part to gaps in employment and so in NI contribution histories

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion Q: "What impact might changes in the state pension age have on risk of poverty for older people?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion .@isabe1_tay1or answers: Lower poverty rates amongst pensioners is likely because almost all receive the state pension. Low-income people aged 65-67 may therefore face an increased risk of poverty as the state pension age rises.

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion Q: "Do you collect any evidence on food bank use?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @jrfAleks answers: We report the numbers of food parcels distributed each year by the @TrussellTrust on page 96 of our report. Their published data is available here:

trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/…

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @TrussellTrust Q: "What geographic levels are these data available for?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @TrussellTrust .@J_Elliott94 answers: We report results by UK nation and region, and cite figures on child poverty rate estimates by Local Authority from @lborouniversity

Read more here:
jrf.org.uk/data/uk-child-…
lboro.ac.uk/news-events/ne…

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @TrussellTrust @lborouniversity Question from: @TrialByTruth

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @TrussellTrust @lborouniversity @TrialByTruth .@J_Elliott94 answers: child poverty rates in the North East are among the highest, & fastest increasing, in the country. In Middlesborough, for example, they increased from 3 in 10 (29%) in 2014/15 to four in ten (41%) in 2020/21.

More here ⬇️

jrf.org.uk/data/uk-child-…

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @TrussellTrust @lborouniversity @TrialByTruth Q: "Is there any urban or rural differentiation in the data?" #AskAnAnalyst

@isabe1_tay1or @J_Elliott94 @KhemRogaly @jrfAleks @LittleVillageHQ @CarlaOnion @TrussellTrust @lborouniversity @TrialByTruth @J_Elliott94 answers: We don't currently break down our results by urban or rural classifications, but this is something we could seek to do in future. Clearly the drivers and impacts can vary substantially between cities, towns and rural areas.

Question from @hoolacambs:

@hoolacambs .@J_Elliott94 answers: part of the answer lies in tenure mix and lower housing costs, although mitigations to welfare reforms also protect incomes. Data is from 2020/21 so won't show impact of Scottish Child Payment. More detail from page 30 of the report.

Q: "Have you any evidence on the social impact that poverty has, i.e leading to increased social isolation?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@AnalysisAndrew answers: Yes, among other impacts we cite evidence that those on the lowest incomes are more likely to cite symptoms of anxiety, including that their social life is suffering. See page 99 of the report, and read more in my thread:

Question from @LostInSW19:

@LostInSW19 .@J_Elliott94 answers: In the report we flag the disproportionate pressure faced be shared owners who face substantial hikes in rents, services charges AND interest rates.

Should be in part mitigated by commitment of many HAs to limit rent increases, but many SOs may struggle.

Q: "How recent are poverty estimates by tenure? Private rents are increasing fast, and social rents will increase in April." #AskAnAnalyst

.@J_Elliott94 answers: The figures are for 2020/21.

We haven't forecasted impacts on poverty rates, but conclude these trends mean housing will become an increasingly important driver of poverty.

Read more

Q: "Are you going to do more work on lived experiences of poverty?" #AskAnAnalyst

@jrfAleks answers: We continue to work with people with lived experiences of poverty, particularly our Grassroots Poverty Action Group which you can read more about here: jrf.org.uk/blog/lived-exp…

Q: "What are the key systemic factors contributing to poverty?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@StatsPeter answers: The key drivers of poverty are the labour market (both employment rates and earnings levels), social security rates, housing costs and inflation.

@StatsPeter How these are changing are illustrated in the table on page 16 and 17 of the reported and summarised here

@basicincome_uk ask:

@basicincome_uk JRF believe that a UBI would likely reduce poverty but would also be expensive and challenging to introduce. Many of its aims are achievable through changes to the current social security system. You can read more here: jrf.org.uk/report/univers…

Q: "To what extent do the 2020-21 official government figures reflect the current state of poverty in the UK, given lower average incomes and temporary financial support during pandemic?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@StatsPeter answers: We anticipate living standards have worsened since 2020/21, given the reasons you cite - explained further in a medium blog by my colleague Isabel. See pages 16-17 of the report for more info.

medium.com/inside-jrf/ana…

Q: "How have public opinions about poverty changed during the pandemic?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@isabe1_tay1or answers: In annex 4 of the report (p. 124) we cite the British Social Attitudes Survey. This shows people have got more supportive of government helping those in need over the last few years but we can't yet say if there's any long-term change due to the pandemic.

Q: "To what extent does the measure of poverty consider the levels of savings and wealth (i.e. in a property or pension pot) a family may have?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@isabe1_tay1or answers: This report uses a poverty measure based on income that does not take into account household wealth. This is in line with national statistics but other measures (such as from the Social Metric Commission) have been developed to take assets into account.

Q: "When reporting the extent to which debt is a heavy burden, does this including mortgage debt or unsecured debt?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@isabe1_tay1or answers: It covers all debt other than mortgage/student loan debt. Respondents are asked if they feel this is no burden, somewhat of a burden or a heavy burden. We look at households where anyone says it's a heavy burden. More details are on page 81 of the report.

Q: "Has there been comparison research on Scotland vs rest of UK given Scotland have the Scottish child payment and other benefits to help in particular low income families?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@CarlaOnion answers: The 2020/21 data for Scotland is a smaller sample than normal due to the impact of Covid-19 on data collection, so it's hard to draw robust conclusions. The SCP was also not fully rolled out at this time. For more info on Scotland: jrf.org.uk/our-work/scotl…

Q: "How can we influence negative language that is used in national and local press to describe the poor, to language that is more positive and informative?" #AskAnAnalyst

.@CarlaOnion answers: This is something we have spent a lot of time working on in our Talking About Poverty work. This was done with @FrameWorksUK . You can read our media guide here: jrf.org.uk/report/reporti…

Q: "How will the increase in the national living wage impact poverty in the UK?"

.@AnalysisAndrew answers: in the report we flag that OBR forecast wages not keeping up with inflation; this could be mitigated by increases in National Living Wage - but these aren't perfectly targeted at the poorest households where someone is working (see page 16).