The think tank @ukonward has published a survey of 47,000 people asking whether they trust others.
Areas with high trust were prosperous and had less crime. They also said, “[an] area where there is a lack of correlation is ethnic diversity."
But that wasn't quite true...🧵
The dataset is publicly available. When I dived into the data I found rather different results.
MSOAs (Middle Super Output Areas) with more white White people had higher levels of social trust.
Different ethnic groups are associated with varying levels of trust. Places with more East Asians tend to have more trust, whilst areas with more Blacks tend to have lower trust.
The Simpson Index, a measure of ethnic homogeneity predicts higher trust.
When you account for the effects of all ethnic groups, 61% of the variation in trust between MSOAs can be explained by ethnic differences.
Rather than having "no association" with trust, diversity is a chief suspect behind differences in community trust.
Which begs the question, how did Onward miss this?
They are not the first to ignore the relationship. Robert Putnam, who first discovered that diversity was related to trust, delayed publishing his findings for 6 years because he was afraid of the consequences of his results.
Whatever the right response - integration or less immigration? We must be honest if we are to tackle the relationship between diversity and negative outcomes.
Read more in "Lies, Damned Lies and Conservative Statistics" published with @Ideas_Sleep
ideassleepfuriously.com/p/lies-damned-…
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