Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
Co-Host, "Missing Middle". Husband. Father. Brother. Son. Economist. Housing guy. I used to do other stuff. Details in link.

Mar 5, 2023, 7 tweets

Morning reminder: Record numbers of people are leaving Ontario. Young families simply can't afford to live here.

So who, on net, is leaving Ontario for other provinces?

Pretty much every age under 70, with people in their mid-20s being the largest cohort of leavers.

We used to gain a lot of people in their 30s from other provinces. Now we're losing them.

If Ontario is suddenly losing people to other provinces, who is gaining them?

Answer: Alberta, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.

B.C. is also gaining people from other provinces, but somewhat fewer than they used to.

And it really is high prices and ability to work from home that is causing young Ontarians to move to other provinces.

Ontario has gotten very expensive... and not just Toronto.

Think about that for a sec. Say you're an OHL player and you play for the Guelph Storm or Kitchener Rangers or London Knights or Windsor Spitfires etc. and you get called up to the NHL to play for the Habs, Jets, Oilers or Flames, you're moving to a less expensive housing market.

Here's a list of all OHL cities in Ontario, and whether or not their home prices are higher or lower than Edmonton. (I feel like this is prime @stubbs980 content).

If I were to substitute Winnipeg for Edmonton, then both Sudbury and North Bay go into the "More Expensive" column, leaving the Soo Greyhounds as the only Ontario-based OHL team in a market with cheaper real estate than the home of the Winnipeg Jets.

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