Now that MW's sales #s are settling, here's that math I mentioned a few weeks back. To reiterate, I think #JIMIN needs to move >175K units to secure No. 1 for #Jimin_FACE (which feels doable!).
Here's my totally not authoritative, grade school math reasoning w/ some graphs...
First, I saw some concerns about the fact that MW sold 100K more albums in his first week than his last go around, which could suggest he'll sell more albums in his fourth week (he moved 150K in his 4th week for "Dangerous"). What this concern may not take into account...
Is that MW actually saw a surge in sales in his fourth and fifth week because of the scandal surrounding his use of the N-word the previous week (don't even get me started on the depressing nature of that reality). In the end, his first 6 weeks of sales looked like this:
Since, hopefully, MW will not experience another scandal that results in an increase in sales, I don't anticipate his sales will rise in the fourth week and will follow a typical downward trend like most album releases.
Some albums that lingered in the Top 10 last year (and to this day) included Taylor Swift's "Midnights" and Drake and 21 Savage's "Her Loss," and I think they would be a better model to estimate where MW will be in his 4th week of sales.
As you can see, both artists experienced a significant drop in sales after the first week (the more sales u debut with, the steeper the drop, which is why TS had a steeper drop from the mega debut number of 1.5M). After W1, the sales trend downward until...
... streams become stable (MW's "Dangerous" album bottomed out around 40K units a week and is staying afloat on the BB200 today just from streams).
If we follow a similar trajectory to these releases, MW's sales trajectory could potentially look like this (give or take):
Obvs, there's no way to know at exactly what rate MW's units will decrease, but we can probably anticipate something along these lines & MW will be right around the same amount of sales in his fourth week as he was w/ "Dangerous" (even when taking the bigger debut into account).
If Jimin can secure 175K units or more in week 4, I think he has a very strong chance of securing No. 1 on the BB200. The rest is up to ARMY! 🎶You can say I'm a dreamer🎶, but I really think we can do it! #JIMIN #Jimin_FACE
OK, ARMY mathematicians, feel free to rip this apart!
* Oh, I should note that the week 2 numbers for MW's One Thing at a Time are just a projection! Those numbers have not been finalized.
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