1/10 WORK ACTIVITY: My team have launched @shell's Energy Security Scenarios today. They explore the question "can a world desperate for immediate security also meet the long-term challenge of climate change?" Intro in the thread, details here: shell.com/energy-and-inn…
2/10 We've built two scenarios, Archipelagos and Sky 2050 from four evolving energy transition archetypes, each with a different pace of decarbonisation. Energy Transition means different things to different people depending on where you live and what access to energy you have.
3/10 Archipelagos is an exploratory scenario where the security mindset that is dominant today becomes entrenched worldwide. Global sentiment shifts away from managing emissions and towards energy security. Consequently, CO2 emissions (energy + land) take longer to fall than Sky
4/10 Sky 2050 is a normative scenario where long-term climate security is the primary anchor, with specific targets to reach net zero by 2050 and ultimately bring the global average surface temperature rise to below 1.5°C by 2100.
5/10 Unsurprisingly fossil fuels lose market share in both scenarios, so the quesiton is not the direction of travel but the pace.
6/10 Electrification is one of the key drivers, with ever cheaper renewable electricity pushing deeper into the energy system e.g. EV's and heat pumps. NB the pace of electrification increases by 2.5x to 5x, so we are pushing our models hard!
7/10 The cumulative delta in emissions between the scenarios by 2100 is ~1.5tln tonne CO2, driven by decarbonizing power, further electrification, CCS and low carbon fuels e.g. H2 and biofuels
8/10 Sky 2050 sees ongoing deforestation rapidly stopped, then a massive ramp-up in CO2 sequestration on land (trees etc), geological storage (CCS) and in the outer years direct air capture.
9/10 Whilst the energy system needs to rapidly decarbonize it also needs to deliver a lot more secure and affordable energy. Thus, we find oil, gas and even coal will be needed for several decades to come whilst low / no carbon alternatives scale-up.
10/10 More charts and details at the link above including a spreadsheet of data here. Thank you for reading this far! shell.com/content/shell/…
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