Thread by @creepzander

Investing in Crypto is easy

All you need is understanding of halving cycle and behavioral patterns of whales, which are based on DOW Theory

In this🧵you will learn how I managed to catch $BTC top end 2021 and $BTC low end 2022 by orienting at last cycle

1⃣All markets move in cycles and trends

In case of Crypto it's quite easy to determine current position in the cycle

Reason for this is halving event, which is considered an anchor and allows smart money to move prices in desired direction without directly talking to each other

2⃣Halving Event serves as the anchor for the price of $BTC

This is proven by the number of days between the halving event and the following tops and lows

We see that the intervals are very similar and we can take advantage of that

3⃣If you also want to be successfull in Crypto, you need to know where we are right now in the cycle and don't let your feelings and news guide you

Basically, you need to think like smart money

For this you need to understand point 2 and 3 of the DOW Theory #investopedia

4⃣Let's take a look at this 2 points of DOW Theory on last cycle (2019-2022). Cycle before and current one also runs very similar so far

2. There Are 3 Primary Kinds of Market Trends:

a) Markets experience primary trends which can last a year or more, such as bull/bear market

5⃣2. There Are 3 Primary Kinds of Market Trends:

b) Within broader trends, secondary trends make smaller movements, such as pullback within bull market or rally within bear market; secondary trends can last few weeks/months

Currently imo we are in a rally of a new bull market

6⃣2. There Are 3 Primary Kinds of Market Trends:

c) Finally, minor trends can last a few days to a few weeks. These small fluctuations are considered market noise

These small movements I try to ignore, the important thing is to take advantage of the big movements

7⃣Let's now take a closer look at the third point of the DOW theory

7⃣3. Primary Trends Have 3 Phases:

A) bull market's phases

a) Accumulation phase: Prices rise alongside an increase in volume

Retail has given up and whales are stocking up on cheap $BTC

8⃣3. Primary Trends Have 3 Phases:

A) bull market's phases

b) Public participation (or big move): Retail and average investors begin to notice the upward trend and join in—generally, this is the longest phase

Whales start bringing prices up so FOMO on retail goes up

9⃣3. Primary Trends Have 3 Phases:

A) bull market's phases

c) Excess phase: The market reaches a point where experienced investors/traders begin exiting their positions while the larger average investing population continues to add to their positions

Retail is full FOMO mode

🔟3. Primary Trends Have 3 Phases:

B) bear market's phases

a) Distribution phase: News of a decline begins to be distributed throughout the investing community via various channels

Whales sell expensive $BTC to retail in FOMO mode

1⃣1⃣3. Primary Trends Have 3 Phases:

B) bear market's phases

b) Public participation phase: Opposes that of a bull market participation phase—average and retail investors are selling stocks and exiting positions to reduce losses

Whale wait and retail is getting frustrated

1⃣2⃣3. Primary Trends Have 3 Phases:

B) bear market's phases:

c) Panic phase: Investors have lost all hopes of a correction or full reversal and continue selling at scale

#FTX bankruptcy sends its regards. Retail who are not really convinced give up and consider $BTC a scam

1⃣3⃣All in all, I have followed the 2015-2018 cycle for the last 4 years and was able to achieve an outstanding performance

The good thing is the current cycle runs so far again the same

I hope this thread also helps you to get the best out of your crypto investment

1⃣4⃣Bonus: an echo bubble took place in April-June 2019, which burst by the end of 2019

There is a possibility that we are currently also in such an echo bubble

The crash at the beginning of 2020 was a Black Swan. I am not sure if we'll see such a crash this time around