Thread by @SwedishRumble

🚨💣 As more information have become public regarding the details of the bids made for MUFC, during the last 24h, this 🧵 reviews in detail what we know about the bids. Who is in the lead? Is it too close to call? Spoiler: It certainly is (!). (1/14) 🚨💣👇 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

To speculate on who will win the auction, it is (sadly) only relevant look at it from the Glazers' perspective. Pledges to invest in the club or to pay money to minority owners on the NYSE are in all likelihood irrelevant to the Glazers. (2/14)

From the Glazers perspective, at first glance, this is how the bids stack up (if the most credible reports are to be believed). (3/14)

This is why for ex. the Wall Street investors are doubtful about 9-2's chances to pull of a merger (which would pay the NYSE shareholders $30+ per share). The share traded at $26.8 when everyone thought 9-2 would walk away with the auction, this time its still below $19.(4/14)

This should not be good news. Anyone wanting #GlazersOut should want to see more competitive bids, since with the initial bids basically paying the Glazers #CFC money, it could very well lead the Glazers holding off selling the club waiting for a third bidder.(5/14)

But there is one thing I just do not buy at all after some consideration, and that is the notion that 9-2 has put forth a bid "just to save face". Who would he save face in relation to? Some fans? Because in relation to the business world, he would look like a clown.(6/14)

I've worked with many vendor auctions and big public M&A transactions, you don't make a counter offer that at least cannot be argued to be equal to the leading bidder. In relation to this, it can be mentioned that I also don't think it is a loss of prestige for Jassim ...(7/n)

...if he loses the auction either. Being a good business man is all about being able to pick good business opportunities, of which you always are surrounded by. The right thing to do is to not overpay. (8/14)

So what exactly do we know about Ineos bid? Two options, 69% at once or 51% at once and 18% in 2026. Could reach a price per share based on a £6bn valuation.(9/14)

The 9-2 bid is said to be up towards $7.5bn in total (the first report in Le Equip said $7.2bn), or pretty exactly £6.0bn. £1bn is invested in squad and infrastructure, £780m in paying of the debt and £4.2bn net is paid to the shareholders, of which the Glazers get £2.9bn.(10/14)

The most uncertainty still lies with Ineos bid. In reality the following factors are unknown: Ineos will pay $3bn/£2.4 for 51% of the shares and Ineos will buy 18% of the shares for a variable price, £[y]bn. If [z] happens, y=£1.2 bn (£3.6bn in total, i.e. £6bn valuation).(11/14)

In all likelihood, the price is tied to the turnover (or similar). So in essence, if the reports are to believed, we know that Ineos bid could be higher, but we don't know how low it can be, and we don't know what the conditions are for the bid to be higher. (12/14)

9-2's bid would as reported pay 500-600m more up front than Ineos bid. Access to 600m over 3 years has a significant value. If the yearly return can be estimated to be 10%, this value totals 200m. This factor of course bridges the gap. (13/14)

So all in all, given the above mentioned uncertainty, I would definitely say that it is "too close to call". Exciting times ahead! (14/14)