Thread by @AMonFootball

So...

I watched EVERY goal Arsenal conceded in 22/23 & THIS is what I noticed... 👀

A THREAD ✍️🧵

As the window is about to open, we’re all looking to the market for answers this summer, understandably.

But before we do that, we need to know the problems we’re trying to fix in the first place 👇

Arsenal actually had their highest scoring season in Premier League history last campaign, scoring 88 goals — so the problems are seemingly at the other end.

By looking at the goals we conceded, and looking for patterns, strengths and weaknesses, we can learn where SPECIFICALLY Arsenal were vulnerable last campaign and clarify our collective thinking about how we try and correct that in the market and other areas. 👀

First things first, raw numbers wise, Arsenal conceded 43 goals last season.

Here’s how that stacks up to previous 10 seasons.

For a comparison, Man City’s numbers over the same time period.

We’ve conceded 43.7 goals on average over the last 10 seasons, while City have conceded 33.1... 📊

Mid to low thirties seems like the magic number to be seriously challenging for top honours, but then you do get the odd freak season where City concede 23 goals in a season and everyone else may as well go home. 😂

As good as 22/23 was, we are conceding too many goals. 🤷‍♂️

The highest amount of goals conceded in the last 10 seasons where a team still won the title was City with 37 in 13/14, a decade ago now, and the average goals conceded to win a title over that entire time is 31.2.

We haven’t gone below that number since 07/08, when we conceded 31. We need to concede less, it’s that simple.

We conceded 25 goals at home, and 18 away last season, making 43, which could be another rabbit hole about home and away form, but I won’t go there in this thread. 👇

I’m going to separate the goals into 6 categories. Those are...

1️⃣ Refereeing errors
2️⃣ Penalties
3️⃣ Individual defensive errors (this will be slightly subjective, but I’ll be fairly
conservative)
4️⃣ Set Pieces
5️⃣ Individual Moments of quality from the opposition
6️⃣ Other

Refereeing errors, I make THREE 👇

Luiz’s goal should have been ruled out for the obstruction on Ramsdale, Kiwior was stood on for Enciso’s goal (he should have played on, however I feel like if your boot has come off it’s fair to stop) and finally... Brentford. No words.

Arsenal conceded THREE penalties this season — the customary Harry Kane one, and two from Said Benrahma.

(I’m pretty sure the Premier League website is wrong by the way, as I can’t remember a 6th penalty after those three and the Salah and Bamford ones that were missed and neither can Transfermarkt, but maybe I’m wrong)

5 penalties conceded would see us tied with Palace and Newcastle, mid table.

Fine, nothing to worry about.

Individual defensive errors I count at EIGHT — in chronological order, Saliba’s mistake against Leicester, Gabriel against Fulham, Saliba against Brighton, Tomiyasu against City...

Zinchenko against Leeds (possibly unfair), Ramsdale against Southampton and Trossard/Ramsdale against Brighton. The Brighton (H) ones you COULD argue are just the ball bouncing unfairly, but I think both could do better and I don’t see those as structural issues.

Across the league, that’s a pretty average number — but according to @SofascoreINT, across Dias, Ake, Laporte, Ederson, Akanji, Walker, Rodri and Stones they have made ZERO errors that lead to a goal in the league.

Saliba and Gabriel have 1 each. There’s levels to this. 🤷‍♂️

@SofascoreINT Set Pieces I count at SIX — Lisandro’s just counts I’d say, then Tarkowski, Senesi, Schlupp, Caleta-Car & Stones. 5 corners, one free kick situation.

@SofascoreINT We actually didn’t concede from a set piece until after the World Cup, then conceded 3 in 3 games if you count Brentford’s.

@SofascoreINT This data from The Athletic is from late March, but it shows that offensively we do really well, our 15.7 corners per goal profiling really well across the league.

@SofascoreINT But this one shows the problem — we’re conceding from every 20.2 corners, the 6th worst record in the league.
I am slightly worried about this one — but I honestly think a lot of it is down to concentration.

@SofascoreINT Mikel recently name checked set pieces as something we need to improve on, and I think when we started realising that we might be in a title race, defending set pieces probably felt less important and our intensity and concentration went.

@SofascoreINT Individual Moments of quality, I count at THREE.

They happen. Nothing you can do when someone just pulls out an absolutely world class moment than say chapeau and move on. The world doesn’t revolve around us, and other players can have great moments. ⭐️

@SofascoreINT I’d say Rashford at The Emirates is an unbelievable bit of quality, Brighton’s build up for Mitoma’s goal, in terms of attacking movement is so good, as is the finish and I’d say Watkins at Villa Park, who was on a crazy hot streak.

@SofascoreINT And finally, other. This is the one I’m really looking at to see what we can learn.

Goals we conceded from all other situations, so nominally open play.

I make it TWENTY. 👇

@SofascoreINT Maddison’s goal, Antony & Rashford’s two...

@SofascoreINT Firmino & Nunez’ goals, Armstrong’s...

@SofascoreINT Haaland & Grealish’s, Coutinho, Billing...

@SofascoreINT Firmino & Salah’s, Bowen, Walcott...

@SofascoreINT KDB’s 2 and Haaland again...

@SofascoreINT Madueke and Awoniyi’s.

@SofascoreINT So.

I think there’s FOUR main areas we can focus on that these goals show us.

@SofascoreINT 1️⃣ I think we can get marginally better at DEFENDING IN BEHIND, and I think we can see that in Nunez’ and Grealish’s goals at The Emirates.

Playing such a high line, we obviously take a risk especially against top teams.

@SofascoreINT Against Liverpool, I felt there were a number of warning signs that we needed to be slightly more conservative with our line out of possession, especially with such a talented passer of the ball like Trent, that we didn’t take, and we finally got punished by Nunez.

@SofascoreINT This may have been an instruction.

But against City, they also punished the space in behind and I think Jorginho is too slow to anticipate the ball into Haaland and close the space. There were also lots of times over the season where we were nearly punished.

@SofascoreINT I’ve put this first as it’s the least of my concerns, and against City we also didn’t have Partey or Jesus.

@SofascoreINT We’re also dealing with the best of the best — at some point, you have to accept that they’re just good at football, and you’re going to get punished across the 38 league games if you play a line like that.

The benefits outweigh the pitfalls. 📈

@SofascoreINT 2️⃣ I think we can get a bit better at TRANSITION CONTROL, and I think we can see that for Rashford’s 2 at Old Trafford, KDB’s 2 at the Etihad, Coutinho’s goal, and Billing’s goal.

@SofascoreINT This one is so heavily related to set up but I still think our anticipation, stepping in early and stopping the transition, is somewhere we can look to grow.

This situation here, with wrong profile, is the perfect example.

@SofascoreINT You have to delay the player here, even if you don’t get the ball, or you’re dead.

This, for me, is massively about player profile selection — and the links to Declan Rice really excite me in this regard.

@SofascoreINT He has some of the best defensive anticipation in world ⚽️, almost like he’s seen the game before.

Having someone centrally of his quality will not only reduce the amount we get transitioned through, but also allow us to take more risks further forward.

@SofascoreINT This is also key out wide — for me, Jorginho has to step in earlier before the ball gets to Coutinho — but we know his deficiencies on the transition.

@SofascoreINT 3️⃣ Our LEFT HAND SIDE is a concern - goals that came from exploiting space on our left hand side that Zinchenko had vacated.

I think you see that in the goals from Maddison, Antony, Bowen, Madueke, Firmino, and Haaland’s goal at The Emirates.

@SofascoreINT Naturally, when you have a defender who comes inside, there’s going to be a vulnerability in the gap they’ve left.

@SofascoreINT Gabriel is terrific at defending out wide, and has done a very good job at covering for Zinchenko, but there’s a limit to what he can do, and there’s also just moments of individual quality where Zinchenko turns off or gets done, like the goals for Madueke and Firmino.

@SofascoreINT The Maddison one is particularly poor, Zinchenko gets dragged inside when there’s already players there and misses Maddison’s run.

@SofascoreINT Some of this is Zinchenko’s decision making, knowing when to go and when to stay as he discusses in a great interview with Adrian Clarke on arsenal.com, but some of it I think is about having more options in that area.

@SofascoreINT Being able to invert both sides and having more a defensive minded full back for some matches like Kiwior would be very useful, as as I mentioned in a previous thread, most teams try and attack us down that side.

@SofascoreINT Our right hand side is very solid — most of our goals come down our right hand side, and most of our conceded come down our left.

@SofascoreINT 4️⃣ The final thing is about ADDING QUALITY and DEVELOPING our own talent.

I think you see that for Haaland at the Etihad, Armstrong’s goal and Salah & Firmino’s goals.

For all those goals, moments of individual quality either side decide it.

@SofascoreINT Foden’s take and turn, Tomiyasu getting dragged around, Salah’s instincts and Ramsdale defending his post as well as the run from Firmino.

We have to accept that the floor in this team has to increase, and the ceiling has to be broken through.

@SofascoreINT With where we are, against the top teams, we need to develop and add the talent that turns the tide, and we need to allow space for the talent we do have to make the mistakes that can make them better. 📈

@SofascoreINT The only small final area of concern is around Ødegaard giving the ball away in the MF.

We were punished heavily for it for Awoniyi, KDB & Walcott’s goals in the final games of the season, of course, but it’s something Ødegaard needs to have a look at I think.

@SofascoreINT I’m not a UEFA Pro Licensed coach so I’m not going to tell him what to do from a technical standpoint, but the pattern is starting to develop, so I hope it can be resolved. 👊

@SofascoreINT So there you go. A full rundown of HOW we’ve conceded all our goals last season.

Realistically, what this all tells me, is that the club are targeting the right kind of talent this summer. ⭐️

@SofascoreINT We need a central midfielder with a slight left sided bias who has great defensive anticipation and transition control, and we need intelligent athletic defenders who can continue to develop and understand the space in behind. 👀

@SofascoreINT Or maybe, we could get a guy who’s both... Please, Declan. Please. 😂

@SofascoreINT If you got this far you probably (?) enjoyed this thread, so I'd really appreciate a RT/Share!

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