Thread by @AMonFootball

Declan Rice can DEFINE AN ERA at Arsenal — here’s why ✍️⏳

▷ Comparing him to Partey & Rodri 🇬🇭🇪🇸
▷ Defining where he's best utilised 🤔
▷ Explaining his SUPER power WITH game footage 👀

A THREAD 🧵

Declan Rice. Basmati. And before you comment, I know it’s not done 😂

But if it does get done, I am confident he can define an ERA at Arsenal 🔥

Let me explain how. 👇

24 year old England International Declan Rice is Arsenal’s main transfer target this summer… and it’s not hard to see why.

Poised, strong, focused, agile and brave, the midfielder is the name on the lips of every Arsenal fan right now.

Supposedly work has been going on for months now in order to sound out Rice’s potential interest, and depending on who you believe, it’s close.

Having started out at West Ham playing mainly as a CB, Declan Rice has now established himself as one of the premier Central Midfield players in Europe, having made the switch at the beginning of the 18/19 season.

Rice is someone I would describe as an ALL PHASES midfielder. 🔥

He has qualities that give control and rhythm in build up, progression and final action. He can pass, progress, break up, carry and shield. An incredible midfielder, and such a hard worker WITH growth potential...

Since first starting in midfield against Everton on September 16th 2018, Rice has barely skipped a beat for his now beloved West Ham, missing just a handful of games in the subsequent seasons, and making 245 appearances for The Hammers in all competitions, scoring 15 goals.

When looking at players of Rice’s calibre and weighing up such a high profile move, we may not know where to begin. He’s a great player, but this would be a record transfer for Arsenal. 💰

However, I think all we need is to ask one simple question: what is his superpower?

For a leading Premier League player, someone you’re paying around £100m for, it’s not negotiable whether they can trap and pass a ball at the top level, perform under pressure, work hard...

...have elite fitness levels, show top professionalism and do all the things top midfielders can do, including be positionally and tactically astute.

Those should come as standard at that price, and they do with Declan.

When spending this type of money, what we should look for is the qualities that makes a player truly WORLD beating. 🔥

The quality or qualities that set them apart from the rest, that put them in the top 2 or 3 in their position in the world on their day. Vinicius Junior’s 1v1 ability. Haaland’s finishing. Mbappe’s pace.

For me, Declan Rice’s superpower is his defensive anticipation out of possession.

This guy is elite at getting the ball back. It’s that simple. At times it’s like he really does have a superpower — he’s seen the game happen, turned back time and come back for the ball.

He knows where you’re going, what you’re about to do, and where you’re about to be. Time after time, after time, Rice picks the pocket of his opponent with such ease, it’s almost laughable. 🔥

His tackling technique is excellent, using his substantial 6’1 frame to simply brush players off the ball, rarely going to ground, anticipating the bounce of the ball and shielding to evade pressure.

There are very few players in world football as reliable as Rice in that regard, and he very very rarely commits a foul.

This solves a problem for Arsenal. ✅

Last season, as seen in my previous thread, one of the patterns when you look at the goals Arsenal conceded was being transitioned through.

When you have one of the greatest transition controllers in world football on your side, you not only have more of the ball and negate the opposition threat, you can actually begin to take some more risks up the other end too. ⚽️

We’ll come to his other qualities a little later — but Rice’s superpower immediately solves a huge problem for Arsenal. With Rice on the pitch, we’ll have more of the ball, and can start looking at Man City’s possession totals as a realistic aim.

Our attacking players can have more touches. Our, at times, soft belly is hardened. The fact he’s positionally versatile too, means that price is starting to look cheap.

Ok, Rice is good. We’ve seen him play for West Ham and England.

But we’re about to spend the best part of £100m on him. Maybe more.

When shopping from the top shelf, something Arsenal haven’t done in decades, three questions come to mind 👇

1️⃣ Is he a substantial upgrade on what we have, worth spending that much on?

2️⃣ Can he get us to the very top?

3️⃣ And finally, where will he actually play?

Well, I’ll get to the the first two questions in just a second but let’s deal with that final question first, as it seems to be one on the mind of most Arsenal fans.

The short answer:

In my view, don’t worry about it. 🤷‍♀️

A midfield 3 is there to suit the game, and once you have a stable of top class players, you can change role, position and personnel accordingly to fit game state.

If you’re facing Man City away, do you play Rice and Partey on the slant to man-mark their midfield, with an ESR to exploit the space in behind?

Against Bournemouth at home, do you drop Rice into the 3 in build up, let them block the midfield and create overloads out wide because their full backs are suspect?

Against Lepizig away, do you have Rice in the 8 to snuff out counter-attacks?

We also forget that injuries and suspensions happen, and might force your hand into certain decisions, at least for periods of a season.

Rice gives us options, even at CB. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

My personal opinion is that at first he’ll play a combination of minutes at left 8 and 6, and then settle into more of a lone pivot player generally, but it honestly doesn’t matter.

More and more, I think we’ll see Arteta make subtle tweaks, while keeping the principles of play largely the same. As much as we can, let’s focus on profile and job, not position and number. 👍

Who knows, he might develop further forward, or further back. I mean, who called Xhaka’s role last summer?

Let’s enjoy the ride — balance is key.

Next question. Is he worth the £100m? Sure he’s good, but our defence seemed to be the problem last year. Does spending that much of the budget on a midfielder make sense?

Well to decide if it is worth it, let’s compare him to our current options. 👇

I’m using Squawka’s comparison metric, looking at league performances last season.
squawka.com/en/comparison-…

I’m trying to use as many non-possession affected stats as I possibly can, but we do have to accept that West Ham had 42% possession on average compared to Arsenal’s 58%, and that simply will skew his stats on some level. [Transfermarkt]

For the left 8 role I’ve selected what I feel are the most appropriate metrics, and we’ll compare him with Xhaka — in fact, when you look at his heat map compared with Granit’s, there’s a lot of similarity to his role at West Ham, although clearly they would have different...

…roles in and out of possession.

Declan profiles very well as a left 8, with Granit really only bettering him in terms of output - with goals, assists and chances created.

Declan is the more influential player in the final third, and you can imagine in a team that creates and finishes more chances, Declan’s output would rocket up. West Ham scored less than half the amount of goals Arsenal did last season, with 42 to Arsenal’s 88. ⚽️

But despite his role at West Ham, many people fancy him as our long term 6, so let’s look at him as a 6 compared to Partey, again trying to select the most appropriate stats.

Rice wipes the floor with him.

Partey is marginally more progressive and has a slightly better record in the air, but you can imagine that might be down to how many they actually contest.

Rice profiles remarkably similarly to Rodri, and is 2.5 years his junior.

To some degree, our defensive issues last season can basically be put down to personnel. We have 2 of the best talents in world football on the right side of our defence.

They just couldn’t get on the pitch at the same time.

I don’t think spending big at the back is the answer — controlling the game better is.

So really, it doesn’t matter where he plays. He’ll do a job for you, and he’ll find his feet.

His control giving capacity is what we’re after. 👊

Now before we look at him on the grass again, there’s an outstanding question. He clearly has the requisite level… but will he get us to the very top?

Well, to some degree that’s up to Declan, and to some degree that’s up to us to create a good environment for his development.

I have very few concerns in terms of his football, and I have almost no concerns about the character of the guy.

Rice recently captained West Ham to their first trophy in 43 year and his post-match for BT was brilliant. 👇

Light, funny, frank — he shrugs off comparisons to Bobby Moore, instead focusing on thanking the fans and staff, highlighting their key role.

Gary Neville describes Declan as the most switched on footballer, at his age, that he’s ever spoken to.

And former scouting co-ordinator at Chelsea, Martin Taylor says: "A lot of players who are more talented than him don't get as far as he has gone, because they don't have the character and desire that he's got.”

compare.bet/news/hes-prove…

Famously, Declan was released from the Chelsea academy at a young age due to concerns about his physical development.

Of course, it’s easy to laugh at Chelsea for making such a slip up, but there’s no guarantee he becomes the player he is today without that set back.

The mark of a man is how he responds to adversity, and Declan has consistently shown he’s up to the challenge — even surviving relegation a few times with West Ham.

From everything I’ve seen, from all the accounts and reports you can find online — he seems like a top guy. 👍

But use your intuition; watch any interview, any post or pre-match, his interactions with fellow England stars, his full length Overlap with Gary Neville. Watch how he fronts up after poor results.

Watch his interaction with this young fan recently:

Look him in the eyes, and I think you see someone humble, focused and with key leadership qualities — the man entrusted to continue Mark Noble’s legacy in East London, and in my view the future England captain too.

A family man who has a young son with his long term partner, with his dad as his agent, this is a guy with his feet firmly on the ground — but with huge ambitions, that Arsenal may be able to match.

Now.

One of the prevailing concerns about Rice is that he “can’t pass”. I honestly think that comes from people who haven’t watched him, or those who feel they need to have a “take” on the player to seem edgy. 😬

While one of the areas I’d like to see him develop in is his pass selection, specifically opting to break the lines more often and with more quality, we simply can’t detach him from his context and his role at West Ham and how much less of the ball his team have. 👍

His passing profiles really well independently, and though he may not have the volume of passes per game yet, the quality of his passing is definitely up there with the best midfielders in the league.

Declan is particularly adept at the switch to the far side.

In fact, he’s in the top one percentile for successful switches in Europe’s top five leagues.

Watch those fades, these inch perfect balls out to the wide areas, and tell me Declan Rice can’t pass.

With wide receivers like Saka, Jesus and Martinelli, we could see that a lot more often, and it’s something Gabriel, Partey and Saliba don’t attempt all too often, though that could be instruction.

Of course, Rice is never going to be Kevin De Bruyne on the ball in terms of cuteness and dexterity in the final third… but Kevin De Bruyne is never going to be Declan Rice off it.

I can't see Rice having the most touches in an Arteta team, certainly not to begin with — and that’s fine by me. And by the way, players improve.

I also think Rice has growth potential in forward areas. 👀

On the underlap in the same position that Xhaka sometimes finds, behind the CB and FB, he can often cause teams problems due to his physicality in the area, and if his ball striking can become a little more consistent, he could become a serious threat.

He has the intelligence and anticipation to be more of a threat from the edge of the box too — though his shooting isn’t perfect. ⚽️

A very small concern I have is about Declan defending wide.

At times, he can get dragged outside and bypassed, and as he’s not as good defending the wide areas as the central areas, you can give yourself problems.

I think, however, that can be corrected with structure and coaching. At West Ham, Rice is the main man, the all action midfielder who everything flows through. At Arsenal, that responsibility won’t feel quite so big, you feel, and he may have a more manageable role.

So. Is Declan Rice perfect? No.

Could he be perfect for Arsenal in the not too distant future and moving forward? I think he very well could be.

BUT. It’s not done. All the signs are good, but it’s not. ⏳

But if it does get done, I think this signing could go down in Arsenal history.

I genuinely think it could be up there as an era-defining, Vieira, Wright, type play.

It shows a serious ambition from the club, as Rice answers some of our biggest questions emphatically in a way we haven’t done before.

1️⃣ He changes the age profile of our midfield.

2️⃣ He adds more character and personality, a leader, a home grown London boy and developing star of England helping to catapult Arsenal into a new era under Mikel Arteta.

3️⃣ It also signals a new approach at Arsenal as we enter phases four and five of the project.

Finally, we look like we’re starting to shop from the top shelf.

All players have growth potential, but we’re starting to sign less and less project players, and more players who are nearly the finished article.

That’s what will get us over the line in a title race, and it’s something Arsenal haven’t done for a very, very long time.

It’s ambition. It’s progress. It’s quality. Declan Rice gives you all that and more.

Declan… we’ll see you at The Carpet… I hope. 🤞

Thank you so much for reading this thread!

If you enjoyed it, please follow me @AMonFootball, and check out @DiffKnock and @TheCannonPod as we aim to provide the very best in Arsenal analysis. 👊