“The FDR (fixture difficulty rating) is based on a complex algorithm developed by #FPL experts”.
Cool…but is it any good?
Here are five weird features of this season’s official #FPL FDR that you ought to know before you start using it.
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1: you can already download an entire season’s worth of fixture difficulty ratings…in July.
There’s a PDF you can download on their site, complete with 380 fixture ratings.
Apparently their algorithm is powerful enough to predict every team’s form for a whole campaign. Decent.
2: but whilst the FDR scale is meant to range from 1-5, there are no 1-rated fixtures this season.
The easiest fixture is ranked as a (2) - and 10 teams get a (2) rating.
It means, according to the FDR, Luton (H) is considered as difficult as Crystal Palace (A) for Haaland.
3: the FDR doesn’t consider defence vs attack.
Chelsea scored just 38 goals last season, making them one of the easiest games for defenders.
But attackers had a much harder time against them: they only conceded 47.
According to the FDR, Chelsea’s attack and defence are equally… https://t.co/URYYOCzwqotwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
4: it makes huge assumptions about newly promoted sides.
To forecast fixture difficulty 10 months into the future is ambitious, but to do it with newly promoted teams is near impossible.
Leeds, Wolves and even Sheffield United have all shown in the last 5 seasons that newly… https://t.co/bNyYbTUiYKtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
5: the difficulty disparity between teams is often nonsensical.
According to the FDR, playing Fulham at the Cottage is as tough as hosting Forest on home turf.
Forest - who won 1 away and 8 at home last season - have an equal FDR (2) for both.
And Spurs - who conceded more… https://t.co/kJJd8cPifOtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
FPL HQ have added some helpful info on his season (like stats) but FDR ought to be a bit more nuanced before it becomes a genuinely useful tool for FPL managers.
An attack/defence slider, as well as some more acknowledgement of home vs away form, would be an excellent start.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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